Pace Oil & Gas Ltd T.PCE

late day action

[juneriley]

where all the asks go as some odd lots buy and then some even lots follow.

xoxoxoxoxoxoxoxo as always.

Recent Trades - Last 10 of 237

Time ET	Ex	Price	Change	Volume	Buyer	Seller	Markers
16:15:36	T	3.18	0.33	700	85 Scotia	80 National Bank	K
15:59:58	T	2.90	0.05	700	85 Scotia	39 Merrill Lynch	KW
15:59:58	T	2.91	0.06	300	85 Scotia	39 Merrill Lynch	KW
15:59:58	T	2.93	0.08	500	85 Scotia	39 Merrill Lynch	K
15:59:58	T	2.99	0.14	100	85 Scotia	7 TD Sec	K
15:59:58	T	3.00	0.15	100	85 Scotia	79 CIBC	K
15:59:58	T	3.01	0.16	600	85 Scotia	90 Barclays	K
15:59:58	T	3.18	0.16	93	80 National Bank	7 TD Sec	E
15:59:58	T	3.18	0.16	24	80 National Bank	14 ITG	E

[zagorsk]

     It always seems to happen and today was a bit extreme.       Trading was occuring at $3.18 until very late in the day.         Then all bids got filled down to $2.88 with a last trade      showing $3.18 after hours. The $2.88 bid which is now      showing is the price brokerages will use to value customer 

[terroir]

By my book the trade action was the reverse, bounced to $3.18 on small volume. Got corrected this morning.   But the bigger question...what is with the share price? While I expect a net loss this quarter, cash flow should still be positive, street is expecting .33/share. According to Nat Bank, CF/share for this fiscal is expected at $1.34, Nav at $5; so trading at 60% NAV and 3x CF. Balance

[zagorsk]

           Maybe the answer to the 'bigger question'  lies in determining why National Bank             has an estimated NAV of $5.00 while the PACE website presentation has a 10%NAV of $16.00.                                      &

[echo2]

I spoke a month or so ago with the new CFO, just after the small spill which brought bad press and devasted the share price. As i recall, he was very optimistic regarding CF in the 1.60 - 1.75 range despite all the depression in the junior space including low gas prices. And, if PCE 10% NAV is even half way between the company's presentation and the lowest estimates of $5, this would imply a

[terroir]

Fred Woods, the president, has had a successful career of build and sell. Based on the Daylight sale, Mr Woods was Board Chair at Daylight, most shareholders received a solid premium, certainly over the then distressed price. I wouldn't expect anything less than NAV. Terr   PS I am a buyer going into tomorrow night's earnings release. If 2012 cash flow is anything like $1.60 the

[terroir]

Fred Woods, the president, has had a successful career of build and sell. Based on the Daylight sale, Mr Woods was Board Chair at Daylight, most shareholders received a solid premium, certainly over the then distressed price. I wouldn't expect anything less than NAV. Terr   PS I am a buyer going into tomorrow night's earnings release. If 2012 cash flow is anything like $1.60 the

[zagorsk]

         At the start of the year the estimates by PACE were for $2.00 or .50 per quarter. Unexpected            Q1 expenses brought the estimate down to $1.80. I.E. 0.50 in Q2, Q3 and Q4.              I suppose the oil spill may have reduced CF estimates further, but they were insured.     

[terroir]

My broker reports consensus at .33 theirs at .30. Considerably below .50. Production expected at 13,750 average for the quarter. Annualizing at $1.2 puts current share price at 2.4 times cash flow. 

[zagorsk]

         I believe the consensus was simply based on the Q1 cash flow. But the Q1 CF was low because of one time expenses that were incurred. Take out the one time expenses and Q1 CF was close to .50.            I think it is too simplistic to annualize .33 Q2 consensus so we should have upside 'surprise' in Q3 and in Q4.