Post by
smallcaptdr on May 30, 2022 5:45pm
I missed the boat
I have been dragging my feet on this one and wouldnt you know it that news came out today and I always have a problem buying at the high of the year so I'll wait for a pullback if one comes, GLTA
Comment by
Maxmoe on May 31, 2022 1:26pm
I thought the same thing when I stubbornly refused to pay $1. Cause $1 is "just ridiculous ". So I paid 98. I almost missed a huge move in just one month over 2 cents. Whew! Good luck.
Comment by
Maxmoe on May 31, 2022 1:50pm
I'd like to find a credible analysts report on the value of pea assets. Like nuttal's valuation of ATH when he bought at 18 and had a 10X target at much lower WTI pricing deck. Anyone seen one?
Comment by
Maxmoe on May 31, 2022 2:59pm
Yes they gave them away. Because at $2 gas, that's what they were worth. They would not have cut that deal at $8 gas. Or $5.
Comment by
Maxmoe on May 31, 2022 3:01pm
I sure as heck didn't buy pea back then, and not when they were pitching an LNG project in booners Nova Scotia.
Comment by
commonsense9 on Jun 01, 2022 10:29am
I dont know how much fair value had to do with it. But it was going to take $270million to pay off TEC. PEA had additional debts of around $150million- if those were not paid off as well they would have been in a position to make selling a problem, if possible at all.
Comment by
commonsense9 on May 31, 2022 3:58pm
I do agree that increasingly LNG does not matter. ARC is just the first to increase sales in the US, whether that is to LNG plants directly or because the general boost in demand those plants caused. Gas is going to be a good business to be in for quite a while.
Comment by
elducky on Jun 02, 2022 5:15pm
At current prices, and locking in fixed contracts next year at just $5, they would make enough to pay off the loan. Curve is well above that right now. They may want to lock in a few years at $5+, maybe half of production. Get them past 2025 when their sulfur revenue also goes way up.
Comment by
elducky on Jun 03, 2022 2:38pm
I'm assuming $5 as the fixed contract for next year. I get an extra $120 million/year compared to Q1 levels, so you are right, I didn't include some of the expenses properly. They'd need closer to $7 to pay down everything. Not that they'd need to pay it all down, if they paid off enough of it to be healthy.
Comment by
Maxmoe on May 31, 2022 7:42pm
Lol, I don't care, not really , if they were astute to buy when they did, or just plain lucky. Either way, they made a ton of money that's still not in the stock price. And to repeat, someone at shell made a stupid deal.