Peyto Exploration & Development Corp T.PEY

EXPERTS COMMENTS

[shenty46]

Experts comments awaited from yasch22 and others, regarding Darren Gee interview on BNN yesterday. Here is the link:
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/we-re-glad-to-put-2020-in-rear-view-as-we-grow-cash-flow-in-2021-peyto-ceo~2143837

[sportstermathew]

I saw the interview. Gee could have corrected whats his face that knows little about the industry half a dozen times.   Asked his questions and then cut off the interview as far as I was concerned. He had a chance to really spout about what is good going on.@ How things are changing etc.  Too bad about the TC decision as it is full of cccppp to not force them to quit messing with

[Swoosh]

The TSP decision should have little impact on Peyto in 2021 as they've hedged most of their AECO production through the summer (made a point of mentioning that on the graph of the latest presentation). If the NGTL expansion is in service for summer 2022, we shouldn't see the price shocks either. Peyto has hedged a good chunk of their AECO production for summer 2022 as well though, and have

[Swoosh]

The TSP decision may have little impact on summer AECO prices if this proposed storage facility is employed. Peyto also has Big Sunny at its disposable. Too bad they need the cash flow though, otherwise making use of Big Sunny during the summer seems like a no brainer. https://www.naturalgasintel.com/tc-energy-gets-green-light-to-develop-storage-service-targeting-ngtl-congestion/

[ghostzapper]

The priorities with free cash flow is grow, debt repayment and then increase dividend.  Going into summer Alberta storage will be in a big deficit.  Will PEY being storing any of their own gas? The NG future price is still low looking out longterm.  We aren't getting much lift there due to the the success of shale gas exploration in US.

[Yasch22]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[houbahop]

The way I see it, 2021 will be another tough year. 2022 looks very promissing. From my spreadsheet: Year  -----  Operating CF ----- Capex 2010 ------     $200    ------------ $261 2011 ------     $300    ------------ $380 2012 ------     $305   ------------- $400 2013 ------   &

[ghostzapper]

The FED is expected to start raising interest rates in 2023.  You'd think the prudent thing to do would be to move from over leveraged to under leveredged in that time frame. 

[houbahop]

Sure. But wasn't the writting on the wall back in the Summer of 2017 about the future of Natural gas prices? Yet, they kept the capex program at record levels for a couple of quarters and took over a year to reduce substancially the dividends. The result of staying in denial about the over leverage of the balance sheet resulted in an over reaction of the stock price down to under $1. The

[Oldnagger]

Debt was not an insurmountable problem , rather it was the ability to service the debt. What was needed was a forward program of hedging both the products and the access to markets. If drilling capex  cannot be completely paid off during the duration of the hedges , then particularly under such circumstances  cash flow should be directed to paying down debt in order to be able to avail

[ghostzapper]

Now what if, vaccine rollouts accomplish what they are set out to do by lets say the end of Q3, the economy picks up rather suddenly and the stimulus cheques are inflationary, the FED may have to move much sooner than 2023. 

[ghostzapper]

Gee comments on storage levels in Alberta.  Where do we find the data?

[Yasch22]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[houbahop]

Just want to add my scenario for 2022 implies Natgas average market price at $2.50cad/GJ and WTI average prices of $50usd during the course of the year. Also hedging generating no loss no gains. If these expectations were to become reality, PEYTO shares are trading at a big discount. We could possibly see $20/share by the end of the year. But this is only a scenario.