Peyto Exploration & Development Corp T.PEY

Transcript from Seeking Alpha

[sportstermathew]

I have listened to the conference call twice and read this transcript to make sure
I did not miss anything.

Peyto is very open about what they are doing.  Sure not everything works to perfection, hindsight is 20/20 as they say, but we are here and it seems 2022 will move us into a great spot financially by year end, only nine months away.  Next year could be even better and we can now see the Cascade power plant on the horizon with no surpises yet.  Then the LNG deals will be significantly positive.

By reading this transcript it is hard to tell if they want to ever be debt free.  Paying off debt is as good or better than sending out in dividends as you save the interest expense on top and free up brain cells to think about other initiatives and no covenants either.

With 120 to 140,000 boe/d Peyto can easily be paying out 10c a month once debt levels are down to say $500 million.

Two main caveats that we know of or have to remember Political risk in more taxes tacted on and flooding of new production and price risk.  The curve seems to be in our favour for four or five years out at least.  Demand may rise also, is rising but even more so down the road.

I expect many pages on the presentation will be updated with new numbers from 2021.

In April Peyto will have a much better idea how the 1st quarter performed and where we will end up.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4494557-peyto-exploration-and-development-corp-peyuf-ceo-darren-gee-on-q4-2021-results-earnings-call

[houbahop]

I also took time to read the  transcript. Thanks for posting it. Two thing you won't see in it that might explain a big part of why the stock is so depreciated. The macro factor. The Natural gas industry as a whole is depreciated. For example, just look how cheap Tourmaline is when analysing their statements. Other energy companies are trading at similar levels. The Peyto factor. Way

[sportstermathew]

Yes, patience is required for Peyto and many others too. I have done well with GXE and VET and CR which is still a large position. But once these other ones do their thing they may only be one trick ponies.  A small company like GXE only has a certain amount of land and production.  Soon to be debt free then where do they go?  The price of oil is certain to weaken at some point

[houbahop]

Yes, when macro turns the corner and investment pours back in the sector, Peyto like all the other Natgas producers will benefit. It is surely tempting for a fund manager to invest in an industry providing P/e under 8, with annual growth above 10. These windows of opportunities do not show up very often, and when they close, it is the beginning of a long, long ride. :)