Peyto Exploration & Development Corp T.PEY

Margin calls??

[houbahop]

Looks like Peyto trading desk is not alone:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-blames-oil-gas-margin-143156880.html

From Peyto's last PR, they currently have about 130 000 000 Gj of NatGas production hedged for the next 18 month, spread out between AECO and Henry Hub (Nymex).
The future strip took an $1.75/Gj jump in the last month. Royalty increase around $0.70/Gj

The hedge book took a $228m hit in the last month.
Royalties foreseeable increase of $91m on that production.

I wonder if someone at Peyto has started at least to think about disconnecting the hedging machine or at least put it in a slower speed.

Myopic approach to hedging in a backawardation strip doesn't work.

Sellers might have a good reason to sell, short term.

[TerribleEng]

Yeah and that is only including the jump in the last 30 days. The jump since Q1 began is significantly higher.  I wonder, will the market look at the jump in value of reserves and future cashflows, or punish the stock for increasing debt and low realized pricing? quote=houbahop]Looks like Peyto trading desk is not alone: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-blames-oil-gas-margin-143156880

[robert41]

Thx for the info I wish I knew what you guys know...so much to learn... now you have me second guessing where my money should be.. so many have there issues crew seems to run up against a production facility issue once they hit 40k production not sure how they rectify that... Bir has higher costs to get product to market... aav I have no idea if they have issues their share price in the last 30

[TerribleEng]

Any company producing in Canada is going to get love. The valuations are just too low given the demand and price strip right now. Some are just more discounted than others. AAV and their MCCS technology give them another revenue stream and some leverage to ESG investing. In the long run, this is all noise. Eventually Peyto's hedges will catch up to higher strip pricing and the stock will rally

[Quintessential1]

I am not sure how much value anyone here puts into charts and technicals.  I treat them as a guide and not a god. That being said, PEY's chart shows a clear path uptrend in the chart provided ( I like Market Screener they do a lot of the work for me) all they way up to the $15.68 resistance level indicated by the red line and value.  At that point they have to break resistance with

[Quintessential1]

Oops chart LOL! https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/PEYTO-EXPLORATION-DEVEL-1411223/ GLTA Again!

[MikeySwoosh]

https://www.pinecliffenergy.com/upload/media_element/123/67/corporate-presentation---final-2022-04-07-v.2.pdf From Pine Cliff Energy's presentation a few days... Page 2 provides AECO sensitivities, including a line on royalties. Looks like Pine Cliff is assuming a $0.90/mcf royalty cost associated with 2022 strip pricing on AECO and WTI. Their production profile is pretty similar to that of

[sportstermathew]

So basically the call that prices will retreat is for most positions, not just Peyto. With all that is going on, first PEY and other gases like CR were held back for quite a while companies like VET trucked on forward. So the Volcanic pressure has been building in the $10 to $11 range and now at a whopping $14 it has to pull back.???? I don't think unless interest rates and market weakness

[Burgersandfries]

The uncertainty in gas price and supply looks to be here for a while I'm not sure how a chart measures that or a war. Normally I would say you are bang on with seasonality etc. I'm not sure it applies this spring. Look at Californias need for gas there's no snow pack worst in 30 years they'll have to use gas or coal the hydro electric can't handle the power need throw

[Larix1]

I think the stock will be punished for some time when people really start to think about how much royalty will increase. This has happened quickly, but at the same time prices for 2024 and 2025 have risen approximately 70 cents and for my part I will not only look at the next 18 months but also beyond. Probably there will be a good oppurtunity to sell and buy back quite a bit cheaper but timing

[Burgersandfries]

Please clarify punished! Those that place the big bucks have surely taken all into consideration...I'm thinking the concerns here amount to a nothing burger. :)

[SlickRick40]

Larix sounds like she has 100 shares. Save the drama for raddit. This is company will be twice todays price.