Peyto Exploration & Development Corp T.PEY

AECO prices very firm

[houbahop]

despite the collapse of US prices.

AECO : $6.75/Gj   vs  Nymex : $5.40/MMBtu.

Very good for canadian producers having an exposition to AECO.

[houbahop]

AECO Futures pricing is still very good despite the collapse of the US front end.

[MikeySwoosh]

Where are you deriving your AECO futures data? The Gas Alberta website https://www.gasalberta.com/gas-market/market-prices has been a mess for the past couple of weeks with either no futures chart or a chart from a few months ago (as is currently the case). The daily prices are solid, but Peyto has minimal exposure to SPOT AECO, and with the frigid temperatures in Alberta right now, I'm sure

[wreckhouse]

Thanks Mike for the news on the drilling rigs all shut down .  With Alberta in a deep freeze it's just way to easy to get hurt or killed on a rig ! Plus the miles all the truckers put on to supply the rigs . If you end up hurt in the ditch ,you may not see help for a long time . Peyto will be fine and a lot happier reporting that their main drilling contractor has ZERO  incidents . (

[houbahop]

You're absolutely right Mikey. Did not notice, besides the front month being september? on the chart. According to ICE market data, the strip is about $0.50 below what's shown on the chart. Makes sense... Peyto should start making excuses for all these expensive hedges. It would be the beginning of something....

[MikeySwoosh]

Well, the AECO futures curve https://www.gasalberta.com/gas-market/market-prices has finally been updated, and it's not looking great for Q2 and Q3 of next year. Peyto's summer hedging at $3.15/GJ doesn't look so bad at the moment. Obviously lots can change between now and then though. 

[wreckhouse]

Obviously lots can change between now and then though.  At least Peyto should have some pain relief with the Cascade Power project looking for NG to make some steam end of summer . Was looking for updates but noting of real importantance was coming my way . BCRNW

[MikeySwoosh]

As per their latest marketing report (which has changed quite a bit, including removing the liquids hedging line??), they suggest that Cascade power plant should be taking their gas in Q4 of next year.

[Quintessential1]

 "including removing the liquids hedging line??" Given the price of condy lately that is probably a smart play. Given their hedging history it might be a smart play across the entire production line. Now I know they have to keep a certain amount of hedging in place to satisfy creditors which is why paying down debt is so important.  I also think they may have come out ahead

[MikeySwoosh]

I'm gonna steer clear of any discourse on the topic of hedging, as I've done so in the past, and it's clearly a devisive or frustrating topic (especially over the past handful of quarters). Condensate seems to be trading roughly in line with WTI again https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-CC52%21/ after a tough summer discount due to SPR releases, as referenced in Peyto's