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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Peyto Exploration & Development Corp T.PEY

Alternate Symbol(s):  PEYUF

Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. is a Canadian energy company involved in the development and production of natural gas, oil and natural gas liquids in Alberta's deep basin. The Alberta Deep Basin is a geologic setting situated on the northeastern front of the Rocky Mountain belt in the deepest part of the Alberta sedimentary basin. It acquired Repsol Canada Energy Partnership (Repsol... see more

TSX:PEY - Post Discussion

Peyto Exploration & Development Corp > Dividend Debate Dumbed Down
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Post by John14v3 on Feb 02, 2023 10:24pm

Dividend Debate Dumbed Down

Not going to lie, I love this dividend debate. What else are we going to do at work?.... 30 years ago my dad probably went to the mens room in the morning with his Globe and Mail, now I go check stock prices and bullboard banter. I guess nothing changes.
 
Ok, I am going to pose a really simple question and try to get a simple answer from the board. Let’s see if we are up to it….even though I know I will get chirped that there is not a simple answer… but I believe I am asking this question for the majority of layman investors that simply bought Peyto because they like the business, etc. There are lots of smart people that talk way above my head on the ability or not to sustain dividend based on Capex, revenues, expenses, natural gas prices, hedging, strip price, etc. I understand that there are different prices across North America and also Global prices with LNG, etc. So, for dummies like me, when I look at CNBC the price of Nat Gas says $2.449 (Mar 23’)( 9:45pm Tuesday night).
 
Try to answer the question in your first sentence and then paragraphs of narrative can follow, if required. I want to hear from both dividend parties:
 
1) Pro-divas: believe the divi is sustainable
2) Anti-divas: believe divi is foolish vs paying down debt, etc..
 
Here is my simple question:
When monitoring Nat Gas prices on let’s say CNBC, what NG price can safely support the dividend for let’s say 5 years assuming normal seasonal fluctuations? I have seen $0.60 thrown around on the board, but that seems too low.
Comment by Nakate on Feb 02, 2023 11:15pm
Well if the CEO is to be believed they got it covered and while Ceo's have been known to fudge the facts to support whatever game there really playing, I'm willing to go with what he has said is doable rather than listen to the short term rantings of the market shorters, not that they are to be ignored but rather used to make your investment more productive over the long term. buy low sell ...more  
Comment by Yasch22 on Feb 03, 2023 1:18am
This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy
Comment by MikeySwoosh on Feb 03, 2023 2:48am
As Yasch has suggested, there are a lot of moving parts on the revenue side. The dividend should be sufficiently covered through 2023 unless both dry gas and liquids' prices completely collapse. If the only concern is the viability of paying the dividend, Peyto will likely be able to fully cover 2024 as well, within their cash flow, so long as the strip stays in contango, and they can continue ...more  
Comment by houbahop on Feb 03, 2023 4:48am
Thanks to both of you, Mickey and Yasch, for taking the time to write down the details. To throw a $0.60 Natgas price to justify the dividends sustainability was misleading. $3.00 is much closer to reality. And a $26 stock price target (Scotia analyst) is a joke in the current Natgas environment. This guy should go back to school, imo. BIR and PEY have resisted very well in the last  6 week ...more  
Comment by Quintessential1 on Feb 03, 2023 11:40am
Great thread!  Congratulations to all of you that are fortunate to be in this kind of position which must be among the top of the first world problems list.  It is still nice to see examples of when to hang on for the div or reduce the lost capital of a share price correction.  It really all seems to come down to the belief in the futre value of the underlying commodity and ...more  
Comment by Quintessential1 on Feb 05, 2023 12:32pm
I believe i responded to the wrong thread with this.  My appologies to the OP I am not sure how I confused it. I am not sure what price the $.60  represents (NYMEX, AECO, HH,  a blend per?).  suffice it to say that based on historical levels I believe a $2 / GJ range on avergae is what PEY needs to flourish even just a little and I am a Pro-diva at these levels. Would like to ...more  
Comment by Yasch22 on Feb 03, 2023 1:56pm
This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy
Comment by MikeySwoosh on Feb 03, 2023 5:49pm
Yasch, I multiplied that by 1.15 to include the value of the heating content that Peyto receives, but that was a mistake on my part, as that shouldn''t have any bearing on volume, just pricing. (1 boe = 6 mcfe) 
Comment by TerribleEng on Feb 03, 2023 2:26pm
Similar to Mikey. I am pro-diva but not this way so currently anti-diva at the $011 rate. It comes down to why we are hedging. If the purpose of hedging is to give security to capital investments and debt holders, then it does not make sense to use a hedges to fund a dividend to return cash to shareholders that the business needs. Peyto needs prices a little above $3 HH and a reasonable basis at ...more  
Comment by TerribleEng on Feb 03, 2023 2:33pm
btw. Thanks John for starting this thread. It's a great way to debate and discuss the different datapoints amongst the best forum participants on the internet for our little segment of the market.
Comment by John14v3 on Feb 04, 2023 10:45pm
No problem. I will take a couple thumbs up. lol.  All kidding aside, The amount of knowledge shared in this thread is absolutely next level. Great job and well done TerribleEng and the rest of the contributors. 
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