Peyto Exploration & Development Corp T.PEY

Dividends Never Make up the Losses

[Sukhi19]

Capital loss is usually  greater than Divi income. e.g  BTE was trading at 50  and Divi was 23 cents PM. There are so many examples  Recent one is AQN.

[stockmarket1]

Yes, I agree. That's why you slowly dollar cost average into things and hold on for the long term. DO you D&D too. 

[Sukhi19]

D& D fails when unexpected events happen e. g. When Saudis started a price war, nobody expected it. Nobody  expected COVID-19. Weather is becoming more unpredictable .Now they are cutting quota but it is not helping much. My D & D says that PEY is a good company but they can't control NG price. In my view, PEY & BIR rushed to increase dividends. PEY Divi may survive by the

[stockmarket1]

I've been buying shares in Pembina which have been doing me fine so far. Great dividend too. 

[Quintessential1]

PEY's payout ratio is 63% and TRP's is over 400%.  Now I know there is a DCF factor that aids TRP but saying it is more resilient leads me to believe that your D&D could use a little DD. This little commodity blip is going to be a buying boon for PEY (not selling) but after it is done along with tax loss selling I expect another bump and PEY hitting 52 week highs again in the 1H

[stockmarket1]

I agree Quint. However,  Peyto is sure on the decline since their last earnings report. PERFORMANCE has be lackluster to say the least. The market wasn't impressed I gather? Hopefully in 2024 we'll see a rebound.  

[Quintessential1]

Not everyone in the market is a long.   What the traders saw was an oversold stock with low commodity price forecast approaching and they did what traders do.  Just ask Houba why he trimmed when he did. Now we have a stock approaching oversold with a high commodity price forecast for Q1 2024.  PEY still has to get by profit taking and tax loss selling season but I think I

[Quintessential1]

Correction:  That should be: "What the traders saw was an overbought stock". Google did it!  ;-) GLTA

[houbahop]

If anyone gave a look to Peyto's 2-year chart I posted earlier, I have placed three horizontal trend lines: $10, $12.40, $15. Basically, it says buy around $10, sell around $15 and throw the dice at mid-point. I rely my trading on technical analysis only. I base my position on fundamentals and technicals.

[bttmfischer]

houbahop, sounds like a plan of merit  Besids you cannot go too far wrong if you give much weightgs  to the fundamentas. I think I will do what I should have done when I bought only 2k @ 9.71. If your forecast of $10 will become reality, I will get 8000 more. 

[bttmfischer]

should read  " Besides" I should proof read my posts...

[bttmfischer]

houbahop you did say that $10 would be the bottom. That was my reply to confirm it.

[Quintessential1]

I did indeed look at the chart you provided.   I like it and it fits Peyto's trading history well. I am a bit surprised you didn't heed it yourself with your div buy but you did say that between $15 and $10 was a dice roll so I am rolling the dice ex-div.  I also think that the technicals are about to change slightly with the fundamentals in 2024. For now they are good.&

[robert41]

Here's what I don't get about charts how do you factor in gas price fluctuations and a large aquasition. Charts don't see that stuff,what am I missing? I get it if the are no fundamental changes in the commodity or the company. Thx

[houbahop]

Fundamentals are factored in the price of what is under analysis. The price of PEY is supposed to include all the information available in the market. A chart sees alot of stuff, much more than one individual sees when doing fundamental analysis. 

[robert41]

Smart chart :)

[earlybird_787]

That chart is so smart that you can never go wrong..lol.

[malx1]

Lol Charts are nothing more than rear-view mirror.    Tells you nothing about where you're going.      You guys are too far down the vole hole.   

[houbahop]

I understand from your statement, you have still have a lot to learn in the field of trading/investing.

[bttmfischer]

houbahop I agree. It would also help if that poster who replied to you took an introductory course in statistcs.Statistcs are widely used,- however that tool is often abused by people (e.g. CPI covid19, etc,) to suit their purposes, of those in power, and want remain there. Sadly, honesty is something was practiced in the past, but not in these days..

[malx1]

Thank you Bottomfeeder.      Myself and others used statistics to prove why we did not require mRNA vaccines to successfully fend off COVID19.   However, that's not what I requested from the TA pros lurking here. Show me a chart that indicated COVID19 would close economies and borders and collapse commodity prices. Surely the experts here knew COVID was

[Quintessential1]

"Thank you Bottomfeeder.      Myself and others used statistics to prove why we did not require mRNA vaccines to successfully fend off COVID19."  You burried the lead.  We could have avoided this whole discussion. "Thank you for the comedy, gents.  Keep up the good work." Right back at ya! GLTA

[ElJ]

BB Colleagues,                           We will not resolve the issue of the relative merits of Fundamental analysis vs. Technical analysis, but my perspective is disapponitment here with the some definitative pronouncements such as: (1) "Charts are nothing more than rear view mirror" (2) "tells you nothing about

[houbahop]

Thank you EIJ for elaborating on the topic. May I add, technical analysis has its place for the ones who assume markets are not perfect. Rationality, dissemination of informations, etc...

[bttmfischer]

EIJ Thank you for your well composed comment, and saying "ask a silly question and get a silly answer" or it is ignored. As far as charts go if  they are used used properly they can also serve to help in where you are going. Example: aviation whether charts and tide charts, however in every case they use past recorded data to make predictions. They are and never claimed to be 100

[bttmfischer]

malx1 First, I will be civil in my responseto you, unlike you were. Second if you used statistics to prove you needed no mask to be safe, you had to know that In order to do prediction by statistical analysis regarless of which method you choose, you must have had previous covid 19data to predict future results by statistcal inference. Since  THERE WERE NO RECORDED COVID19 EVENTS in

[Quintessential1]

You are right!  Charts are a rearview mirror but so much of trading these days is done by either automatic algos or money managers and traders using software that is based on the charts giving buy and sell signals that they can be and often are a predictor of future trends.   You do not have to believe it or trade based on it but try using a chart to predict what happens and see if

[malx1]

Show me a chart that predicted COVID-19.     You guys are so far down your TA vole holes that you can't tell your toe from your nose.     Unreal  Someone here says I have a lot to learn.     Guess that's why Moody's hired me to edit their TA textbook for CSI. I have often found that those who lead with TA discussion have no grasp