Peyto Exploration & Development Corp T.PEY

Free Cash Flows

[houbahop]

It will be interesting to see Peyto's forecasted FCF tonight.

Tourmaline published theirs yesterday. $1.19B expected for 2024  vs $1.69B done for 2023.
Basically, using diluted shares of 355m TOU ($63) is trading at 18.8x expected 2024 FCF.

If my spreadsheet is correct, I have assuming for 2024:

- Capex of $440m
- Average production of 128m boe/d
- Current commodities spot and strip price.
- Share count of 196m.

Using my expected $350m FCF for 2024, PEY trading at $14.70 is at 8.2x expected 2024 FCF.

Anyone playing with numbers see this?

TOU - PEY spread has narrowed in the last 3 months. I expect it to narrow further.

[stockmarket1]

U expect the share price to decline with your assessment? Look what happened to paramount yesterday.  That could be a different issue though?? G/L

[houbahop]

Either TOU declines or PEY rises or both, imo.

[stockmarket1]

Tou is declining this morning so far. I'm betting that PEY will slide down below $13 at some point after earnings. 

[Singoa58]

Eps way up ..  23.00 target price 3 months 

[stockmarket1]

Highly doubt $23 by 3 months time. Especially,  with nt gas prices being in the dump. 

[malx1]

SINGOA58 - you seem to have a sense of humour, so let's give you that. In the big bad world of resource production, commodity exploration and production, we use CASH FLOW from operations, not net earnings. E&P's in both mining and energy are valued using their cash flows. Cash flow removes the impact of "non-cash" charges:    depreciation, depletion and

[ElJ]

Houbahop,                   Yes the comparative FCF numbers that you have identified, certainly represent a very significant difference in marketplace valuation of the two companies. So perhaps a reasonable conclusion is that of the many parameters that go into marketplace evaluation such as reserves in the ground, finding costs/field netback ratio

[houbahop]

Thanks EIJ for sharing your thoughts on this. In my view, expected Free Cash Flows is a major factor in valuing a share. Although I place Tourmaline as the leader in the industry, thus deserving a premium, I think its share price compare to PEY is still to high. I own both but I would be more incline to buy more PEY or sell some TOU until the state of the natgas markets worldwide gives me more

[Singoa58]

Massive gluten of natty world wide .. winter is over so natty will probably settle at 1.35 to 1.55 I'd imagine