Peyto Exploration & Development Corp T.PEY

About Peyto's forward sales

[houbahop]

From the latest  Corporate Presentation, Peyto has currently these natural gas hedges:

2024: 459 000 Mcf/d  @  $3.93/Mcf    65% of forecast production
2025: 435 000 Mcf/d  @  $4.08/Mcf    58% of forecast production
2026: 195 000 Mcf/d  @  $4.02/Mcf    24% of forecast production

Now, if JP is clever enough, he won't repeat the same mistake done by DG2 and Peyto's Board going all-in in capex and production growth if Natgas prices stay low and the Futures Curve Contango starts to flatten. By adjusting capex dollars with forward sales perspective, these % of forecast production can increase by 6-7% simply by keeping production flat or simply replacing the 25% base decline rate of producing wells. 

In 2023, Peyto realized the following natural gas production and sales:

2023: 630 000 Mcf/d @ $3.57/Mcf

Nice to see the $15 resistance being blown away all the while enjoying the $0.11/share monthly dividend!

[mrmomo]

This is somewhat deceiving Mr. houbahop............. First, folks should STOP using/quoting Canadian figures as it's not exactly accurate and will confuse most investorrs. The STANDARD here is HH prices and US dollars. Next, WHERE or which hub does Peyto sell most of their gas? I think that will be pertinent in evaluating Peyto's revenue. And please remember that even a low cost ng

[GregC24]

Stop with the stupidity.  Borrowing money to pay a dividend is nothing like borrowing money to buy an asset that then produces more income than it cost to purchase.  If you can't understand that basic fact then you should just leave your money in a savings account.   Second, since Repsol was purchased in September we can infer that those conversations were going on for months

[NGinGWN]

I'm not sure why he is even posting on this forum as I assume that he doesn't currently own Peyto since he told everyone to sell on March 11th when the stock was much lower - unless he didn't take  his own advice :-)

[mrmomo]

GregC24 wrote: "Stop with the stupidity.  Borrowing money to pay a dividend is nothing like borrowing money to buy an asset that then produces more income than it cost to purchase." Really?? Is it really THAT difficult to grasp that the end result is the same no matter the means achieved to get there?As an anology, If someone decides to liquidate someone else either directly or by

[houbahop]

Mr. Momo, you are looking at natgas spot price and might be missing the big picture, imo. From what I see, Peyto will have a minimum of $400m of very lucrative liquid sales in 2024. Add 459MMcf/d fixed at $3.93/Mcf (70% of forecasted 2024 production) or $658m, it adds up to $1B+ in sales for 2024. Your are left with 30% of unhedged production to be sold at spot prices to various NA hubs. Simulate

[wreckhouse]

20-30 bbls/gas and eacch new well coming on stream at 5000mcf/d , it won't take long for the Money too flow . The team at Peyto has a lot of work going over the old data . Remember not to long ago wells were just left , money was tight. It may be only a short time and a oil gusher will show up in the data ! Edson is in oil country , just saying . Loving the divi and my sell price 42.00 ( LOL )

[mrmomo]

houbahop wrote: "Mr. Momo, you are looking at natgas spot price and might be missing the big picture, imo." Not only spot, but their hedges as well. I think i've stated this several times here. So NO, it's not ONLY spot prices that i've included in my assessment, it takes into account ALL their hedging contracts for 2024 as well. "it adds up to $1B+ in sales for 2024