Paramount Resources Ltd T.POU

Heavy in POU

[MyHoneyPot]

I have been a POU fan for many years, and i do own a couple other names. I am very familiar with the Montney (VII Gen, NVA) and hold shares in both those companies. True, i have held this stock when it traded below a dollar, now i have had quite a run, and i did double down, not to the extent of Raymod but to the point it was my only energy stock at one point in time and i was really overweigh in the sector. Raymond and i held each other back from jumping, but that now seems a long was back in the rear view mirror. 

Balance Sheet Repair

• I purchased NVA as soon as they fixed this balance sheet with that deal that gave me the green light to invest. 

I purchase VII Generations as soon as we starting seeing OIL north of 60 (Liquids Rich)

• High cash flow generation now.

POU is my belief in their asset base, and the future or Energy.

• Most opportunity to make a deal and change the company in a heart beat. 
• POU is one deal away from a full out explosion in share price. 

IMHO

[Sugaree]

Thanks for the replies guys. HP, what do you make of the 57% hedge for 2021 production, are you comfortable with that number, or was that a surprise to the high side?

[Raymondjames]

Going to jump in on the hedging issue. Yes looks terrible but we were all fighting for survival in 2020. We are relieved from bank covenants now. Costs way down. Beat wells in the basis. Suck it up for q1 and q2. Bank debt may get whacked by 40m shares of Nva, $100-$160m fcf, Waterous payment of $45m -90m, and trust me when I say this, JR is going to exceed production guidance by 5000 bpd.  

[Raymondjames]

Stiffel - raised target from $11.50 to $14.  They note the hedges are a drag on the 2021 view but that the business model and improvement are second to none. You don't raise the price target if you think pou can't overcome the hedges.  Again - I'm not happy with the hedges but understand why they were put in place. We all had a near death experience but pou comes out stronger

[Sugaree]

RJ, i hear ya, makes good sense. Curious, are these upgrades from Peters, BMO and Stiffel were they all from today after the news, or just recent but before?

[Raymondjames]

All later this afternoon. This will be re-rated. We get to $15 in 2021 notwithstanding the hedges. 

[Sugaree]

RJ, these upgrades and analyst write ups, is there a website I can find these to read, or are you getting them subscription based? I cant find them via Google search.

[Sugaree]

This is becoming typical as of late, trades up in first 20 minutes with some value buying on decent volume, then when they are done, shorties whack it down on lower voilume, taking out stop loss orders to cover.

[MyHoneyPot]

The stock is a little thinly traded, I do a lot of my trading in the options market. Almost all. IMHO

[Raymondjames]

Don't use stop loss orders. Pou will be debt free by end of year. Then big fcf in 2022 and beyond. Bought more at $10.50s. It's ridiculous how much money I've made buying the dips. We are a $13-15 stock now. Trade accordingly. 

[Sugaree]

I agree, stop loss orders are for retail suckers getting burned by hedge funds. I can see level 2, and I believe there is a level 3 for quotes. I have always wondered, can these hedge funds at level 3 or beyond see the size and strike prices of stop limit orders, any idea?

[Raymondjames]

Yes. Sitting ducks. We will be stagnant here until the fast money is out. Then we go to $13. 

[Oldnagger]

These markets are definetly being manipulated , I confirmed that to myself yesterday .  After heavy cajoling I convinced my wife to buy some NVA yesterday at the open. I told her she should take a risk instead of investing in EFT's So together we put in a buy order at 2 cents over the prior trade on her account.  I didn't tell her, but I wanted to help her get in effortlessly, So

[Robertboblaw]

Old, 100% agree with you. With all that has heppened with robinhood trading, gamestop etc, it 100% makes you wonder about market manipulation/regulation.

[Sugaree]

I do realize we had a big run, but have been flat for 3 weeks now, being left in the dust by many other names. Time for a big day, especially relative to these other names.  

[Gassy166]

Sugar POU simply was the first to have a big run and left many in the dust. It's a great stock but with most quarter 4 numbers out now other companies such as nva will play catch-up as values are much lower.

[Raymondjames]

Forming a new base here. The shorts are getting jammed in the options market again. Raymond James (no relation) started buying at $10.78. Then Jones trading at 10.58. Then Peters end of day.  Oh boy it's going to be tough to cover 41.m+ in this commodity environment.  I've also made so much $ that I pick off the short sellers all day long. Knife fight in a phone booth. 

[Raymondjames]

I have accounts at most of these institutions and get the reports from them. 

[Raymondjames]

National Bank's view on the hedges. The analysts like the certainty. This stock gets re-rated soon.    "Capitalization Update                         Its balance sheet and capital program remain backstopped by +55% of volumes hedged at an average price of C$60/bbl & C$3.60/mcf."