Paramount Resources Ltd T.POU

Very different world from march 2019

[Raymondjames]

Pou net debt was $1b then and really only $200m now. No fcf then but $500m in 2022. 

OPEC+ played second fiddle to shale. Remember all that swing producer bull? OPEC+ in control now and will not permit a crash in prices. In fact, how many USA shale companies were even tempted to produce more before Friday ... they will tread cautiously now. OPEC+ will not allow oil prices to drop further  

When COVID hit in March 2019, it was the end of the world as we knew it. Nobody was ever going to use fossil fuels again. Horse and buggy was all we were going to need. Look how far we have come. Vaccines came out. Anti-virals were rolled out etc. So now the South African variant was quickly reported. Kudos. Reading potentially more contagious than Delta but not as dangerous and vaccines and boosters should provide protection. If all else fails, Merck and Pfizer can tweak the vaccine and roll it out within 100 days. 

I won't go through all the permutations but you know what I'm doing .. was buying at $21.40 Friday. Sells off more buying more. We are a $30+ stock even in this market.

[Raymondjames]

And the shorts were killed financially in the last 7 months. Want nothing to do with this beast. Loyal shareholder base now and thinking we are really a $40 stock ... not $30. I'm happy with $30. 

[Raymondjames]

Wait until margin calls get dealt with by 2pm. Then we rip. 

[Vince64]

Any thoughts on POU price action lately? Seems the price is being down and can't seem to get any traction.

[Raymondjames]

Vince - lots going on in the markets right now. COVID. Fomc  tapering. Rate increase? We are doing well under the circumstances. 

[Raymondjames]

And you should buying. 

[Raymondjames]

Be buying. 

[Vince64]

Thank you Ramondjames. Agreed and I have. Close to doubling my position in the last month.

[Raymondjames]

Will be $30 soon enough 

[Vince64]

Still early in the trading day, but why the sudden volume/price appreciation thus far?

[Raymondjames]

Market just realized it's oversold. 

[dselvonm]

Over three million shares traded today???? Anyone know what's up???

[Raymondjames]

Index inclusion Monday 

[MyHoneyPot]

I was nibbling at March options, and i think i am taking out some of Raymonds position. IMHO

[Raymondjames]

Lol. Have my fill of March. On to June. Over/under on a special by June?

[Robertboblaw]

Based on the assumption of $300 to $400 mm fcf next year, assuming oil prices stay $70 to $75 next year, put $300 mm toward teaching debt targets, the rest is gravy. $100 mm in special divies. I'd say $.50 in april/may perhaps another $.25 in December.

[Raymondjames]

Pou is a beast 

[Robertboblaw]

I might change this response. You know, omicron will likely spread, disrupting travel and back to work plans world wide. I don't think even $70 oil for the first half on next year is likely. I don't see much use in any special divies thus. good news is, 50% of our prod next year is hedged at ~$69 USD (assuming today's 1.29 exchange rate). This will help us should omicron keep

[Raymondjames]

Oil going higher. January is a write off but opec+ will not let the demand/supply balance get out of whack. Puts American shale on its heels where it belongs. Bullish. 

[Robertboblaw]

I should correct something, this avg hedged price for next year should be more like $72.50 (using todays exhnage rate of 1.28). Furthermore, With the collars, 50% oil prod is hedged; but without them, its only like 28% oil hedged. My bad.

[Vince64]

Very nice price rise on decent volume today.

[Vince64]

I suspect the index funds got their fill today.

[Raymondjames]

  I posted this on November 26th with pou reaching $21.79 that day. Down to $20.47 next day etc. Now look at where we are. 

[Vince64]

Always look forward to your posts.