Paramount Resources Ltd T.POU

POU looks like a lot of value left in the Company.

[MyHoneyPot]

I believe that POU has roughly 26-27 dollars a share currently in Cash and Equities, and other Land and Production assets. They also own the current infastrure at Willesden Green. 

After the distribution of 15 dollars a share, they will have close to 12 dollars a share plus 30,000 boe/day owned infastrucutre with no debt.

So after the transaction they have 1.6-1.7  billion left on the balance sheet in cash, securities, and assets. Their capex is roughly 800 million for 2025. They could end the year with about 1 billion in assets and 45,000 boe/day. High netback liquids rich produciton through their wholly owned facilities. 

None of the Land assets have any value assigned, Cavalier, Clearwater, Horn River, Liard, etc. 

They are going to exit in 2025 at 45,000 boe/day, 50% liquids, and likey will have cash on the balance sheet.

They are going to exit 2026 at 60,000 boe day. 

The mention of Liard and Hornriver are associated with their woodside partnership. 

We should get an update on the initial sinclair wells H1 - 2025.

So POU is growing Willesden Green, and Noth Duvernay will be rampling up to full nameplate production. 

Sinclair sounds like there is a plan, and they are waiting for results. 

To get the story of Liard/Hornriver could have some partner involvement, woodside. 

Clearwater is likely a billion dollar question, and they mentioned it in the press release and it is on the table, see what happens there.  

Seems to me like what will be left over 1.6-1.7 billion cash + securities, 30,000 boe - exit 2025 45,000 boe, with sinclair, horn rivier/Liard, clear water, and ongoing expansion of Willesden green exiting 2026 at 60,000 boe/day at least.

Looks like going into 2026 still no debt and a significat amount of cash on the balance sheet. 

It looks like we should have more than a $15 dollar stock after the dividend, since they may have almost 12 dollars /share in (Cash + Securities)  expecting to exit 2025 at 45,000 plus boe/day.  

I think it all looks good to me, maybe some people want to split the capital gains between years because of the cap on personnel capital gains taxation. 

IMHO
MHP

[Quintessential1]

I don't think the new captital gains inclusion rate is going to make it into law. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/article-ottawa-has-yet-to-pass-the-law-to-raise-the-capital-gains-tax-what-it/#:~:text=The%20government%20said%20it%20would,annual%20capital%20gains%20above%20%24250%2C000. GL Fellow Investor

[WillyGreen]

Terrible legislation. Wasting money all over the place but ok to tax the entrepreneurs in Canada. Socialism at its worst. 

[Quintessential1]

Just to expand on this a little, with the share price dipping below $30 doesn't it make buy backs worth more now.  I wouldn't go as far to say half price but the $3 per share savings in dividend payments coupled with the $.15 per month savings until the deal closes and they get to keep $12 per share of capital on the books and yeah increase everybody's per share metrics including

[WillyGreen]

Quinte - I will be buying stock and calls in 2027 post dividend. Aggressively. Pou should use the ncib here but it's a touchy subject when you own 47% of the company. Regardless it's cheap now and will be cheap post-dividend.   

[Quintessential1]

I like touchy subjects.  I have only seen one poster ask about whether buy backs are good or bad for  retail shareholders. Who objects to the Riddels having more control of this company? Or who objects to more buy backs at this discount?  Is it a discount? They appear to run it well on behalf of their shareholders. You have said that private is off the table. Also not quite

[WillyGreen]

Quinte - I think instuitonal buyers will be looking to step on the stock post-dividend if the stock drops by $15. Will be a true growth story. $15 then 21.50 then $25 then $30 etc. If retail investors sell it off then I'm buying when it goes down by  $12. Will back up the truck at anything $15+ drop.  Current enterprise value of Kelt is $1.4 b. Similar production post-sale but

[WillyGreen]

Quinte- And before I get  a bunch of airbags (Auburn2 where are ya) saying I'm an idiot blah blah blah. Geez these guys are endless. Look at your net worth before criticizing me. If you got  50m + then have at me. I stuck  this out from $7 to .88 then added 10x more stock and calls along the way and averaged up. Yea up. Glad I did.  Will be buying on the dips I

[Quintessential1]

Well that sounds like formula for Happy Holidays!  Any idea what your ACB is so you know how much of that return of capital is tax free? GL Fellow Investor

[WillyGreen]

Lets say between $0 - 5 post divvy. All good. Tax planning going on now for the kids. 

[pkrash]

The company was buying back at $31...they will probably buyback more. Insider spending $3M at $31.30 should tell you all you need to know.

[WillyGreen]

Share price is $6.25 below what Kelt trades at. Cheap