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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Protox Therapeutics Inc T.PRX

TSX:PRX - Post Discussion

Protox Therapeutics Inc > Setting up well- AEZ
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Post by bioboy10 on Nov 23, 2009 4:33pm

Setting up well- AEZ


Nice Finish to the day..

Did some research on Aeterna Zentaris (NASDAQ:AEZS) as per last post by cabbie.
It looks like they went and did a placebo test in phase 3 which did not give the statistical numbers on IPSS score improvements on BPH. They got a score of 6. The stock tanked

An interesting point is that they did a deal with pharma before the placebo results came out. It looks like they did a deal for 100 million dollars. This made that stock move quite nicley  to a higher market cap. AEZ had a market cap of about 145 -175 million post big pharma deal and anticipation of phase 3 placebo results. They were also listed on nasdeq which probably has a lot higher profile than TSX.

The  point in all this, is that if we get good results from triump study we should be in the drivers seat. We would be able to do a post result financing or partnering and be able to command a very good deal. A deal much better than AEZ.

Comments are welcome from anyone.

BB
Comment by major3 on Nov 24, 2009 11:07am
PRX is expecting to see "The Placebo Effect"show up in their Phase 2B results. Individuals that received the Placebo should show a IPSS improvement of 4 to 6 where as those that received PRX302 should show numbers consistent with Phase 2A (IPSS improvement of 10 to 12). The stock is very strong much earlier than I would have expected. If you where one of the individuals taking part of ...more  
Comment by cabbieJBJ on Nov 24, 2009 12:16pm
Interesting post major3.  How do you come up with a 4 to 6 estimate of a IPSS score improvement for placebo?  2x to 3x better is still very significant.  If the results you speculate hold, this will be a marquee day for PRX.  If the data behind the scenes on prostate and brain cancer hold promise, I wouldn't rule out a buyout at this time.  Otherwise, I agree ...more  
Comment by major3 on Nov 24, 2009 12:46pm
A 4 to 6 IPSS score improvement is consistent with past studies where the Placebo effect has been present. There may be no Placebo effect but if there is expect up to a 6 point improvement. PRX has interest coming at them from major pharma in the US, Europe and Japan. Good Phase 2b results puts Fahar in the drivers seat. This product could easily replace a number of the oral drugs on the market ...more  
Comment by cabbieJBJ on Nov 24, 2009 12:57pm
your business case comment matches my expectations as well.  At the AGM, there was an expectation that interest might come from niche players.  I doubt that at this time; it will be the big boys.  The cancer efforts have always been a under-the-radar kicker that may attract a surprisingly good buyout, imo.Aporpos the bph palcebo effect, I know it will be there, based on other ...more  
Comment by bioboy10 on Nov 24, 2009 1:24pm
The Phase 2b will be Marquee test for BPH. If positive the deals that come PRX's way will be very lucrative. They will be in the drivers seat. It will be too early for a buyout, unless its a very high number  $ 3-5 dollar range. I don't think that will happen with only Phase 2 data.4-6 IPSS score for placebo was mentioned in AEZ's press release as substandard. I agree major3 that ...more