Protox Therapeutics Inc T.PRX

Just thinking out loud

[nickv2007]

Hi I'm new to this thread

I bought some stock at 70cents a few weeks ago based on the technicals but now I'm doing some DD.  I know wrong order but so far I'm in the black so I'm smiling.

So I read the slides in this link
https://www.slideshare.net/Equicom/protox-therapeutics-august-2009-corporate-presentation
It was interesting, got me hooked and now I'm thinking long term

So they have very little money left in the bank and need to raise money.  How much let's calculate.
Somebody on the board said they were burning $25,000 per patient.  That's pretty low and usually it's much higher let's say it's $50,000 per patient for Phase III.  Phase II is now complete; it's the dosing stage...how much can we give before the person for it to work as best as possible without making them vomit.  :)
Phase III is the efficacy stage.  This is the one that will provide them the stats to present to the FDA.  From what I can tell from where I work it has to be at least 300 persons for statistical significance to compare against others' results.

So 300x$50,000 = $15M
Let's be optimistic and say they decide to raise the cash at $1 / share on the market.  They need 15M shares.
They have 84M shares + 15M brings them to roughly 100M shares...not a bad dilution.  If they succeed to get the FDA to finally approve a new drug then I suggest they look to be bought out by a big pharmaceutical company.
But let's say they're crazy and try it on their own they need more shares.  The price will have skyrocketed into the multi $ range.  They only need a few million shares more.  Let's say 10M more bringing it to 110M.

So what do I think the stock price will be in 2 years? 
Let's assume 10% market share of a $3B industry.
$300M/yr with 110M shares.
That is approximately a company with $500M market cap or in other words $5/share
so if they get to $2-3/share this year I'm going to start selling.....a bit.

So can anyone tell me if this is truly a single dose or is it (more realistically) a daily/weekly/monthly dose drug?

As for the NR, they must report within 48 hours of knowing the final data.  If they haven't released anything yet then they are having their data verified by a third party.  That means it's not bad which means they're going to phase III.......It's looking good.   I envy all those who bought in at
.50 or lower.

[cabbieJBJ]

Good questions nick.  Let me add some perspective for you.1. They believe that they have identified to optimal dosage.  That is the dosage used in P2b.  P2b is an efficacy study: double blind versus placebo.2. P3 may simply have to expand P2b by another 200 to 300 patients, if P2b is successful - as nothing will likely need to change in the P3 protocol.3. They will meet with FDA

[risky_ventura]

                                                      "...at least 300 persons for statistical significance..."With 60 in the

[nickv2007]

Thanks for all this info CabbieThis really helped a lot> 4. Under the assumption in #2, $25,000 per patient will be more than enough.The estimate for our trials was $50,000-$100,000 per patient but that included in-house costs.  Is the $25,000 only for the CRO?> 5. The open label dosing (the same dosage level as P2b) follow up suggests that one a year dosing will be the

[nickv2007]

Thanks for your info too risky_venturaFrom what I've seen, unless the P3 trial is identical to the P2b, the FDA will not even want to hear about it....but I hope you're right; that would save millions.I'm pretty confident now that this company got good results with respect to the control values.  If they had bad results they wouldn't waste another dime getting

[cabbieJBJ]

Nick:  You asked,The estimate for our trials was $50,000-$100,000 per patient but that included in-house costs.  Is the $25,000 only for the CRO?YES, I BELIEVE THAT IS CORRECT.