Quarterhill Inc T.QTRH

RE:What a 50 cent per smartphone win is worth

[v_guerriero]

This is what I shared last year in terms of modeling the Apple win at 0.50 / unit.  It is worth 1.1-1.2 Billion of licensing for 4g/5g patents.  

If the original award is reinstated double all these numbers and you get to 2.0-2.5 Billion.  

This is the licensing rate that Inderdigital commands on its 4g/5g portfolio.  Look at it it's valuation.  

This is what I've been talking about and what Cabbie has finally confirmed. 

Apple:
1. 100M trial win - 85 Million award plus interest and legal fees 
2.  75M for sales since coverage period - 150M phones sold since the period covered in the trial judgment
3.  40-50m future sales - for phones sold for next 4 years depending on sales levels until patents expire
Total Apple judgment worth $335-$375M USD or ~$430-490 CAD

Other LTE phone makers as WiLan LTE Portfolio virtually unlicensed.
1. Previous sales: $260 million of past sales from 520 million non iPhone smartphones
2. future sales: $60-80 million per year of non iPhone sales
Total non iPhone value applying $0.50/unit rate is $500-580M USD or $650-750M CAD

TOTAL VALUE of $0.50 / unit is around $1.1-1.2B CAD.

[cabbieJBJ]

Two points v_g: I think you're a bit long on the post verdict revenue. The patent expiry dates used at trial were May 21, 2019 for the ‘145 expiry and December 21, 2021 for the ‘757 expiry. The rate awarded by the jury was not broken down on a patent by patent basis.  Thus, the court has used the expiry date of the earliest to expire patent as the end date for products the

[v_guerriero]

I think I know my stuff Cabbie.  You missed 60% of the Stanwood licensing opportunity!  More than a "minor" error.  But I appreciate you fessing up to this Board.   1.  Yes.  If the Intel chips are reinstated there is more than A $100M upside to the Apple judgment at the original judgment.  I didn't include that.   2.  Intel had 14

[mrmoribund]

No no, this is all wrong. The market is highly efficient and the market says all that patent stuff is worth zero.

[v_guerriero]

Market started pricing in VHC win before the decision came out.  It started about six months before.  Then it rocketed higher during and after the hearing at the CAFC.  It was clear from the judges interaction how they were going to rule in the court. Go back and listen to the oral proceedings at the CAFC of VirtnetX and Apple.  The stock doubled in two days.  

[cabbieJBJ]

Our case is not on the July or August CAFC oral hearings calendar.  The court sits w/o 30-Aug-2021 and w/o 04-Oct-2021.  Our case should be on one of these calendars.  Reading tea leaves improves after oral argument. I know that you know your stuff; I know mine too.  The answer was different 9 months ago.  Perhaps I asked a different quesion, but I don't think so

[v_guerriero]

It could end back up on the August CAFC calendar when it is updated.  They usually update in the first week... so check back in early July. There was an issue with the full final submission including all appendices.  It was not compliant with the court practices.  It had to be resubmitted.  And is now corrected.   In all likelihood we will have a decision this year