Post by
goinonaprayer on Dec 23, 2016 2:47pm
Canaccord
The following was from post #4853 on Investor Village. Looks like Canaccord now feels the time is right as they are buying a chunk today. Cannacord on RMP Canaccord Note on RMP RMP announced the disposition of its Ante Creek assets this morning for ~$114.3M. In Q3, Ante Creek averaged ~4,300 boe/d (45% liquids), suggesting a transaction price of ~$26,500/flowing boe. The sale was completed as part of the companys previously announced strategic review. Proforma the transaction, RMP anticipates exit rate production of ~3,200 to 3,300 boe/d, largely from Waskahigan. The company will exit 2016 with positive working capital (~$10M by our estimates), and a bank line of ~$40M. We view the transaction as modestly positive for RMP, given it wipes out the companys debt and leaves it well capitalized to delineate its Montney asset at Gold Creek. Proforma for the transaction, we estimate a 2017 EV/DACF of 5.2x, which is a discount to the small-cap peer group at 6.5x. We continue to rate the stock HOLD with a price target of C$1.10/share The stock is under pressure in early trading this morning. In addition to a tough oil tape, we believe this is partially due to a turnover in shareholder base, as event-driven traders likely look to exit the name. This could end up providing a compelling entry point. Highlights from the transaction: Assets Sold. RMP sold 4,300 boe/d (45% liquids) of production at Ante Creek (Figure 4) for $114M, or ~$26,500/flowing. This is below the ~$40,000/flowing received over the last two years for neutral weighted assets (Figure 2); however, we believe the price is fair, given a reduced drilling inventory at Ante Creek and infrastructure constraints in the area. Go-forward production and multiple. Post the transaction, RMP anticipates an exit rate of 3,200 to 3,300 boe/d, suggesting a trading level of ~$40,000/flowing. On our price deck (US$55 WTI), we calculate a 2017E EV/DACF of 5.2x, which is slightly below the peer group at 6.5x (Figure 3). Go-forward assets. Post the transaction, RMPs assets will primarily be its producing Montney field at Waskahigan and its exploration Montney field at Gold Creek. With the company trading at a reasonable cashlfow and production multiple, Gold Creek represents upside potential for the stock. Gold Creek upside potential. RMP has ~77.5 net sections in the field, and estimates ~200 drilling locations (Figure 5). In our valuation build-up, we are currently ascribing only 5% of its unrisked potential to our target price. Based on an NAV/well of ~$3.4M, it contributes ~$24M in value to our target. What if the company sold Waskahigan as well? If we ascribe a value of $30,000/flowing boe to RMPs remaining production at Waskahigan, this equates to a value of ~$100M. Based on a current EV of $120M, this suggests an implied value of ~$20M for RMPs position at Gold Creek. This represents good value, in our view, given the amount of land/locations, a well that has already been drilled, and offsetting activity in the area (Figure 4