Post by
Resilience on Jan 11, 2017 10:41am
Mike49 - Beaver drilling & opportunity
Hey Mike, Beaver drilling has been with them for a long time and has done the 2 latest Gold Creek wells. Assuming most of the completion work is done by the same crew, I wouldn't worry. But thanks for the info.
4-30 is done but won't be tied in until Q3 2017.
9th of Jan they started 4-18, from the same pad as the well that's already behind pipe: 3-22. those 2 will be brought online end of Q1 with probably between 2.000 - 2.500 initial production (my estimate). The 1st well flowed ~1130 boe/d, the latest however will be a longer well and if succesful will likely produce a bit more and I expect will add significantly to reserves as it's crossing 3 sections.
Those 2 will be brought online when the facilities are ready and the pipe is linked up.
A mid stream partner was scheduled to start construction of the pipeline ~ 15th December '16. The pipelines being built will handle up to 45 mmcf/d and ~15.000 barrels of oil per day. I wouldn't expect the midstream partner to put in a 22,500 boep/d pipeline if they don't expect it to be filled.
That pipe-line will be built on RMP land and basically the only other company in that area of Gold Creek that makes sense to link into as well is Velvet. Looks to me like they will pretty much expect to split that capacity, so you would be looking at > 11.000 boep/d field.
Not unlike CIOC's field that's neigbouring RMP and on a conference said they are producing 16.000 boe/d from 6 sections. RMP has 19 linked sections right next door of which ~12 are a 4x3 sections block. In total RMP has > 70 sections Gold Creek land.
I like my chances on RMP knowing this: @ $ 0,73 this looks like one of the most likely multi baggers I see. Comparable companies with less production are currently noting $ 4.000 per Montney Acre, The Permian notes beteen $ 27,500 - $ 50.000 US. RMP notes $ 750 per Montney acre - Gold Creek is 199% IRR (check presentation).
Average IRR @ $ 50 WTI:
Permian: 32%-42%
Montney: 38% -130%
You tell me where the opportunity lies ;-).
R.