Sherritt International Corp T.S

Cathie Wood on electric car penetration forecasts

[Contrarian333]

Now, when you look at the number of units of a new technology in the early days, the difference between, if you're mapping out, let's say, a linear growth trend versus an exponential growth trend for a technology, in the early days, they don't look that different. The bases are too low. Give an analyst or a company five years, and it's night and day. That's why our electric vehicle forecast today for 2025 is 40 million. Most others, if you look at all of the trade associations that forecast and so forth, you'll see maybe 5 or 10 million, not 40. It seems impossible. That is, again, another inefficiency we are exploiting, because Wright's law works.

[0checker]

Good Post, thx. I have a very, very High Opinion of Cathy Woods.

[rkhosla]

There's an additional take to all this.  You can't support Beta AND VHS at the same time.  OEMs cannot support two different technologies at volume at the same time.  So there will be a tipping point whereby ICE is a niche pricey fringe product and EV is a mass produced economy of scale product.  

[SilenceDogood1]

Thank you for this interesting information Contrarian.