Post by
Ernieandbert on Mar 01, 2022 3:32pm
S Fundamentals
Compare the EV of S back 5yrs ago when the stock last peaked at $1.87 vs today at $0.66 and being draconian and ignoring the cash in Cuba, never mind what is in Canada:
Jan/18 at $1.87:
Ni Price - ~U$5.00
Shares o/s ~300mm at $1.87 = $561mm
Debt o/s - ~750mm = $750mm (ignoring any and all other debt, which there was on Ambatovy and Spanish reclaimation)
EV = $1.311 bln
VS
Feb/22 at $0.66:
Ni Price - ~U$11.50
Shares o/s ~400mm at $0.66 = $263mm
Debt o/s - ~375mm = $375mm (and cleaned up all that other debt that we didn't even account for) (and I am not pricng the bonds at MV which today is $59.75)
EV = $638 bln
Quite simply, this stock would need to be at $2.50 to equate to where it traded 4 years ago. And it is a way cleaner entity today, Ni prices more than doubled and possibly part of an overall commodity super cycle but definitely with major electrification tailwinds. Anyone know how much Free Cash Flow this thing will spit out at these Ni and Co prices? It is stunning.
This is a 4-5 bagger from here in the next 6-12 mos and even if Ni prices come off a bit (I would bet they go higher for the above reasons), there is significant cushion at this level.
Comment by
Nickbull on Mar 01, 2022 11:39pm
Not sure when the market will forget that this company has vaporized 1.5 billion dollars and laid to waste bond holders and share holders alike over the past 15 years. If they can get a multiple close to what they had last time nickel was this price then 3.50 is reachable by year end. But that is a big if. cheers