Spartan Delta Corp T.SDE

WOW... What a Q4'21 Sneek Peek and 2022 Look Ahead Report!!

[TouchDown12]

I believe Longs (SDE) have caught a tiger by the tail (good news)..... SDE will have the same production in 70K BOD as Birchcliff; have the same debt level at the end of '22 (199M) as Birchcliff... and have an average mix of 60% NG / 40% Oil and NGL's.... and wait for it.... with a outstanding share count 40% LESS than BIR (160M vs 260M)... now i see how this stock gets to 12.00/share this year. Just Wow!! GLTA TD12

[TerribleEng]

They basically released unaudited Q4 numbers today. Huge pre-announcement!!! Love how the 2022 Guidance is still sandbagged. AVERAGE production for Q4 was 72.5 kbpd, no way they spend $330MM in capex, and average 68,500 - 72,500 for the year. They are probably north of 73K right now, and with guidance assuming a very conservative type curve; they absolutely should crush the guidance.  

[TouchDown12]

Great insight TE! I missed that.... so they fiancially perform as per my note; and they convert 330M in CAPEX (add production against decline).... what do you think there exit production might be? Add??? to 72K BOD?? TD12

[TerribleEng]

Well prior to this, they were expecting 2022 production to be 70kpbd. In October they were basically there and then tacked on whack of wells in Q4 and only brought a percentage of those online.  Lets just look at the Dec - Dec production, because I would be surprised if they weren't already at 75kbpd+. In some of my discussions they were planning on having the deep basin basically

[TerribleEng]

Even that quick back of the napkin math is off... because we only have Q4 average production of 72.5K. If October was 68Kbpd, and average for the quarter was 72.5kbpd, Q4 Exit needs to be much higher than the average...so 80kbpd for $330 capex will definitely be on the low end. Btw new presentation

[TouchDown12]

Great analysis TE! It would have taken me all night to put that together. So with added production value (80K over BIR at 70K);  same lowered debt at y/e '22 (199M); better mix 60 NG / 40 Oil and NGL's; lower O/S count.... and using TP on BIR as a collaborating SP rating.... If the S/P is 9.00/share for BIR (an established co.); then i calculate the SDE SP Target equalivilent (using

[TerribleEng]

Well some other things I just realized that confirm the production figure. Montney Q4 average production is ~30Kbpd. October production was 29kbpd.This implies they exited at 31kbpd.  In the deep basin they averaged >40kbpd for the quarter. Since we know that number had to be ~42.4kbpd and we know that average production for 2022 is 45kbpd. Oct was 39kbpd which makes most of this math

[ppp]

Sure would be nice to know the decline rates.