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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Spartan Delta Corp T.SDE

Alternate Symbol(s):  DALXF

Spartan Delta Corp. is a Canada-based energy company. The Company is engaged in exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas properties in western Canada. The Company has a portfolio of production and development opportunities in the Deep Basin and the Duvernay. It is focused on the execution of the Company’s organic drilling program in the Deep Basin, delivering... see more

TSX:SDE - Post Discussion

Spartan Delta Corp > Projected 2021 Exit Volumes based on Oct - Dec Petrinex Data
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Post by Bamsmba on Feb 16, 2022 5:35am

Projected 2021 Exit Volumes based on Oct - Dec Petrinex Data

Hey Folks ,

Here is my guestimate of Exit Volumes based on Fauxtomato's Petrinex Data. Lots of assumptions here, but the Petrinex volumes were rising in the past quarter... so this should be close.  Note that this is less than their guidance as TerribleEng as also pointed out. Sorry about the formatting...

SDE Projected 2021 Exit Volumes   Notes
            Estimate             BOE   
Oil  12,385   12,385   
Cond  2,390   2,390   
NGL  13,676   13,676  38.55% liquids
Gas  272,164   45,361  6:1 Ratio
       
Total    73,813 
 
Comment by TerribleEng on Feb 16, 2022 9:36am
Good work Bamsmba, This is close enough to the numbers I got for it to raise my confidence in the 2022 projection. The real unknown when I was doing it was the split between november and december. I assumed a constant growth model but it looks like based on the Petrinex data that it was loaded more toward November, which lowered the exit number from what I estimated by 800bpd or so. Thanks.
Comment by Bamsmba on Feb 16, 2022 9:58am
Thanks again for your work TE. I am really just doing an interpolation... and making some assumptions about the Natural Gas Flows and their respective liquids, but most of the Petrinex data "Beat" we see is in the oil... and that is where the cash flows are most sensitive to the bottom line, especially since these incremental barrels are by definition, unhedged... so... 1,000 bpd or so.. ...more  
Comment by TouchDown12 on Feb 16, 2022 10:03am
Bamsba... i won't repeat all the factors as i did yesterday... But in comparing all the know data and projections... if BIR is at 9 Y/E '22... it is about 6.80 now... then SDE would be 16 on a relative apples to apples basis. So my PT will be 14... keeping things conservative... with outlier of 16-18 if a bidding war occurred (possible). GLTA TD12
Comment by GuidoSan1 on Feb 16, 2022 10:35am
Bam on tech my multiple charts various time frames suggest: 10.60 to 11.00 area by mid summer or sooner (20% chance)....."wink" It broke long term resistance line from 2018 this morning however on light volume at 8.60, nothing to suggest there is anything much in the way of resistance now until 10.50-10.60ish. Cheers.
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