Post by
logicandinertia on Jan 06, 2022 1:00pm
blue sky with new 52 week high
SGR underperformed the CDN REIT index (XRE-TSX) from November 2020 to November 2021, despite the deprecation of the CDN dollar over the past several months (since SGR issues its distribution in US dollars, and converts to CDN dollars, meant a rising distribution).
however, since end of November, steady outperformance, owing likely to passage of time and hitting more radar screens and/or some touting from publishing analysts. The differential in the yield (between SGR and REIT sector) becomes more important at a time when market interest rates are likely to rise, the spread between SGR's dividend yield and market rates still sizeable. The last factor is the reluctance of the United States to lock down its economy, despite Omicron. Unlike Ontario and Quebec, stores of all kinds in the US are being kept open this time, muting the risk of SGR vs CDN retail REIT peers.
The stock is now at an all-time high. This is important in the markets, as there is no psychological resistance. Meaning what? Usually, as a stock appreciates, it sees resistance as some investors with a higher cost base get back to break-even and sell. The inevitable positons in the portfolio where investors are underwater. It may not be optimal behavior for portfolio performance, but it is human nature.
When a stock breaks out to new all time highs, you aren't facing this dynamic. Good news for patient longs, as the yield in CDN dollars at current levels is still 7.5%, despite the good performance.
Good luck to all in 2022.
Comment by
Compypaul on Jan 06, 2022 3:16pm
Incisive and thoughtful analysis, logicandinertia. This one has had a reasonable record of dividend increases over the years, certainly before March 2020 anyway. I wonder if there's some buying in anticipation of that as well?