Post by
Obscure1 on Jul 14, 2023 4:29pm
Will Brookfield sponsor a Short Sale campaign
I haven't checked in for awhile.
Unless someone can convince me otherwise, I still expect a SHORT attack on SPB at some point.
With a 48 million share overhang held by Certarus shareholders, SPB has turned into a waiting game.
From what I can see, there are zero drivers to move the share price upwards until the 48 million shares are moved. On the otherhand, Brookfield has a huge incentive to drive the share price down and scare the ex-Certarus shareholders to sell off their shares.
Brookfield won't be the face of the Short Attack but they will absolutely be behind the campaign.
I suspect that after a sustained period of share price doldrums, there will be a well coordinated Short Attack that will drive the price below anything even remotely reasonable. I'm thinking we could see $6 per share but who knows. At that point, Brookfield will be picking up any shares they can from panic selling. Once the cleanup of shares sold by weak hands has been completed, Brookfield will move the share price up a bit and make a Bid for the company. My guess is the Offer will be in the $10 range. I don't think Brookfield will get enough shares through the offer to take SPB private, but I bet they will get a good chunk of the 48 million shares issued to Certarus who will see $10 as a win at that point.
I don't have any insider info. I'm just looking at how the Brascan (Brookfield) guys operate. They are sharks and they have the money and the tools to make this type of transaction work.
Comment by
Freezerburn on Jul 14, 2023 5:02pm
I don't expect any of that to happen.
Comment by
bttmfischer on Jul 15, 2023 11:37am
How would that benefit Brookfield? Besides M&B still has a lot of shares, for which they paid over $11 a piece..Apart from that. they also have deep pockets, and some very bright people. They did see things that most here did not. Remember? Mind you . opinions are like belly buttons, everybody has one.
Comment by
Baystboy07 on Jul 17, 2023 7:52am
Certarusnis is partiallly PE backed. Which means that the LPs will sell on a strategic basis and return cash to investors. If not it will affect their carried interest payout. Question is really how much of Centaurus is PE owned vs not. We have seen short interest rising which is indicative of them synthetically selling the stock for when the lockup expires on the shares. GLTA
Comment by
pierrelebel on Jul 17, 2023 10:49am
"We have seen short interest rising..." That is correct. 5,625,000 shorts as of July 15, 2023. Much of the selling has already been done. We are at or close to a bottom. Patience will be rewarded.
Comment by
bttmfischer on Jul 17, 2023 2:45pm
Pierrelb, I sure hope that you are right. Mind you, I have all my patience - I never used any of it yet.