Superior Plus Corp T.SPB

Thoughts on SPB

[Experienced]

The recent trading in SPB and especially today has all the hallmarks of the company being in play.  The question in my mind is whether it is a short attack or Brookfield accumulating to launch a takeover bid once they have 10% of the company.  Given the number of shares being outstanding, Brookfield would need about 25 million shares to get to this number.  They would be unlikely to announce anything before this happens.  If this is what they are doing then based on trading volumes they would need about 20-25 days to do this and this in turn raises the question if they are doing this - When did they start?

Adding confusion to the whole thing is that a number of brokerage houses have announced in the past week that they still maintain a buy rating.

What is my bottom line?

Based on what I said above, my spidey sense is that we are not far away from an inflection point where there will be an announcement by Brookfield or if it is a short attack then they will soon be done and reverse their position.  So right now I am resting on my eagle perch on the cliff ready to pounce once there is a bit more clarity.

[1condor]

Experienced...I was thinking the same thing today. I have also seen this pattern (a walkdown in the stock) prior to takeovers. I figure the company will go for about 9 or 10 bucks on a takeover. Time will tell.

[Experienced]

Condor...if we are in a scenario where Brookfield is making a move, based on what happened in the case of IPL, I don't see a takeover price that high.  Your numbers are consistent/realistic with a normal takeover but Brookfield seems to find a way to get what they want without much of a premium. By holding the preferreds they are protected in any scenario so they can be tough and not get

[Specific]

Experienced....what is ur take on these june comments by 5i research June 26, 2024   5i Research Answer: We think the current valuation looks reasonable to us. SPB’s EV/EBITDA is around 8.0x, at the lower end of historical averages. SPB’s debt level is 3.9x, quite high but on par with industry averages and gradually declining. We don’t think the dividend would be at

[Experienced]

Specific....,interesting question I guess the problem with this is that it was a June statementand so they didn't have the info from the July PR and hence their price forecast/recommendation didn't work out which is not a criticism of them. In my view, the July PR raises a question about the recurring revenue when they are going to change their business strategy.  Some of their

[InvestSmarter]

One part of their new business strategoy on the propane side is to raise prices on seasonal/low volume customers. If the client is not purchasing enough propane, their tank rental jumps from $100 to $300 annually. These customers have been a loss to the company. So either charging more for the tank rental, or getting them to use more propane are the only solutions. If SPB loses 20% of these

[himmler]

It's kind of like the hydro rates here in Ontario ,Canada.At my cottage in the winter,there are months I'm not there...but...even with no hydro use they charge delivery...with no usage! Problem is we cannot change Hydro companies. It's still easier to switch from propane to another source....although there's always cost involved.

[ol_griz]

I'm irritated by the same thing but it does seem that it could be driven by higher line repair costs.  Now that could be the result of short-sighted cost-cutting in maintenance of the lines (tree overgrowth) but regardless we've sure seen a lot more line breaks in our area over the last few years as a result of storms.  Labour costs are not what they used to be so each of these