Suncor Energy Inc T.SU

Bought 750 more

[ManitobaCanuck]

Total holding 5000 Suncor now at 22$ average .This is going to 100$ in next 5 years.
Am a patient investor

[Chris007]

LOL...if SU gets to $100/share, the world economy is in trouble. Its probably going to take some hyper-inflation kind of commodity prices for that to happen

[ManitobaCanuck]

Chris .  Lol  ,  Wasnt this flirting with 50$ as recent as July 2018 with WCS much cheaper . If Oil goes to 100WTI , this should be 100$ . Correct me with some calculation based on FCF at 100$ WTI . Regards 

[techstocks22]

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[Chris007]

Heres an extremely simplified/back of a dinner napkin calculation: Using 2022 assumptions @ $100 WTI Breakeven of 35 WTI 100 WTI – 35 WTI = 65 65/bbl  x 800,000 bbls/d = 52,000,000 52,000,000 x 365 = $18,980,000,000 annual cash flow Apply 5x EV/Cf multiple (similar to CNQ) = $94,900,000,000 Less net debt : **net debt $18,829,000,000 at end of q1 2021. Lets assume they manage to reduce

[NPCexe]

Man, can you imagine 100 wti holds for an entire year... I don't think that's realistic but one can only hope

[ManitobaCanuck]

Thx buddy . Don't you think these stocks might get re rated or CNQ might have a better EV/fcf when oil is at 100$

[Chris007]

5X EV/CF seems to be the typical multiple for the large caps over the long term...I guess investors are willing to award CNQ that multiple due to it proving to be THE all-weather/any market condition Canadian o&g stock to own. I mean, in 2020, when most companies had to cut their dividend, take on more debt, and cut capex/production...CNQ was growing production, keeping their dividend, making

[ManitobaCanuck]

Thx for deflating my balloon of optimism with some reality check . Guess I will be happy for this to reach 50$ atleast .My acquisition price is low ,so possibly I could hold for a bit n enjoy the dividend in the meantime . Guess have you factored the stock buybacks in the equation? Lol ,but again markets tend to surprise us .Remember Athabasca Oil ,when we had a conversation at 18 cents n

[Chris007]

No, I haven't factored in the buybacks...which SU still has around 30 million more shares to buy for the rest of year (from Q1). That being said, for a stock with 1.522B shares outstanding, that isnt really make much of a dent in the share count...at $100 oil, 5ev/cf and 1.49B shares, price per share goes up about $1 USD to $55.64 As for ATH and a bunch of other, they've seen a nice lift.

[ManitobaCanuck]

True , things have been bad since the 2014 crash , but again its takes a few years for sentiment to change and possibly a few more quarters for mood to change from optimism to euphoria (see the tech stocks ,cannabis and bitcoin ) .But all said ,we might not hit the COVID lows again unless a black swan event occurs . So its best to stay in these stocks for now till the generalists come calling

[Chris007]

its definitely been a hell of a year. i also did pretty decent in turning around 30k in play money into a little less than 400k. ATH  was definitely one of the stocks that contributed to the gains. can't say i have much to complain about...

[Tommy123]

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