Suncor Energy Inc T.SU

Chess vs Checkers

[Obscure1]

Exprienced:

In regards to the effects of a Line 5 closure affecting ENB and SU, I think it is important to understand that by the end of this year, Marathon's 1.2 million barrel per day Capline pipeline that runs from Patoka Illinois to St. James Louisiana will be fully reversed (will flow north to south) and in service. 

ENB runs Lines 6, 14, and 61 from Superior to Patoka and they partnered with Marathon (75% owned by ENB)  in 2016 to buy 49% of the ETCOP which also runs from Patoka to the GC.  As a result, ENB has a new egress alternative from Superior if Line 5 gets shut down.

My point is that I think ENB probably has their contingency plan for a Line 5 closure all figured out.  I doubt that the timing of ENB's Ingleside purchase and Marathon Oil's 4 year plan to reverse the Capline are a coincidence. 

If ENB has a contingency plan in place, you can bet SU does as well.  After all, the two giant companies only have to wait another 12 months until Gretchen is voted out, which she surely would be if she shut down Line 5 and put thousands of people out of work and exponetially increased the risk of a spill.  I bet Michigan voters would love Gretchen is she created destabilizing supply chain issues and drastically higher gas prices. 

Gretchen and Biden are playing checkers while oil and pipeline giants are playing chess.

[Chad123]

Excellent post

[Experienced]

Good points... A shut down of Line 5 would decimate the people on the Northern Peninsula of Michigan who rely on propane for their energy source for heating.  ...Whitmer is playing politics here since these people vote republican so they can freeze in the dark as far as she is concerned. To me the big unknown is what SU would do if the feedstock to their refineries was shut down with a

[topdown99]

MSM now reporting that Line 5 fate won't be decided until after corp of engineer study which will take a couple of years to complete . Even Biden realizes it would be political suicide to cut supply going into the winter heating season not to mention Pearson wouldn't have jet fuel

[Experienced]

Topdown - your points make complete rationale sense.  The problem is that as pointed out in my earlier post "Desperate Times", the Dems in the US have thrown out the rational playbook since they know they will be turfed out in a year and will do whatever they can to get their radical agenda in place before that happens. Their strategy is quite clear - get their policies in place

[topdown99]

Americans love their cars and they love their ability to travel , Democratic policies are making that all more expensive and worse yet , Biden begs OPEC+ to pump more . Sanders , Cortez and the lunitic fringe are loosing their appeal , Virgina and NJ sent a loud message that resonated in Washington . Democrats are looking weak and feeble , Biden knows it would be suicide to wade into the line 5

[Vlosun]

You probably know that Suncor bought the Portland pipeline to feed Montreal from sea port. And the Enbridge line 9 could be reverse. Montreal is about 137Kbpd and Sarnia 85Kbpd, so i think they can operate without the line 5. They will probably better positioned than others.