Suncor Energy Inc T.SU

I wonder if CNQ could take over SU

[Obscure1]

I was looking at an overlay of the 5 year charts of SU and CNQ (yahoo.com>>>SU:to>>>full screem>>>5 year chart>>>comparison>>>add CNQ)

SU traded at a premium to CNQ for two years leading up to the pandemic. 

It is easy to understand CNQ coming back faster than SU as oil prices moved up.  However, with SU's downstream running at about 93% of pre-covid levels in Q3 and certainly higher in Q4, there is no logical BUSINESS explanation for the divergence that we are seeing in the share price of the two companies. 

The dramatic reduction of the SHORT position on SU was very revealing imo.  I eagerly look forward to seeing the updated short position on SU as of Jan 15th as I think it will either confirm that the shorts have left for easier targets, or we are in for more of the same.  I can't imagine that shorts would be wanting to swim upstream against SU's Q4 numbers, but I have been wrong before (more than I can count).  

I have to wonder if the SU BoD aggressively worked its NCIB in 2021 and then doubled down on the NCIB when it reported its Q3 numbers out of concern that the company is a takeover target.  Anyone can see that the street hates SU (if you can't, go to the link above for a clear picture). 

CNQ started benefitting from the rebound in the price of oil and nat gas well before SU and it continues to gush cash today.  It wouldn't surprise me at all in CNQ decided to use some of that cash to start mopping up SU shares. 

CVE absorbed Husky when the pandemic hit.  Husky had been hammered by the crash in oil prices, but so had CVE.  As such, I think it was a merger of convenience/opportunity. 

The SU share price has obviously rebounded since the early days of the pandemic, but CNQ has almost lapped SU.  

Imagine a bigger CNQ with its superior mgmt team operating 1.5mm barrels per day with SU's upgraders and refineries and downstream.  Now that would be a powerhouse.

[sledig]

Yes will see what the short position does, I  think covering has occurred. What got me back into Suncor was the dividend  increased back to previous.  With this divergence I'm buying  Cnq swallowing su. Big pill to choke down. Interesting though. Gl

[alvarez2]

Suncor needs to gain back some trust from it's shareholders. When they cut their dividend by more than half in June of 2020 right after the Covid market selloff, that didn't win them any browny points. As of last quarter, they have reinstated most of the dividend that was paid precovid. I'm guessing they will add to it looking forward ( I'm speculating ). You'll notice in the

[alvarez2]

..........My speculation is that at current oil prices, a solid earnings report in Feb and announcement that they will be increasing the dividend..............this stock should fly.

[sledig]

Totally agree. Onward and upward

[jx7000]

Agreed. It'd be nice to see a divy increase or maybe a one-time special div payout, if that's at all possible?

[w8asec]

YES - A one time special Divy is allowed/possible, and would be a great move on the BOD's part. ...and this would be ideal timing coinciding with year end... that way it's a one time payment and not  an increase affecting the future payouts which are already high enough at 4.65%. Shorts hate that move.

[Experienced]

History has shown that one time dividend payouts are a bad idea.  I very much doubt that this idea is on the table at the SU BOD...

[NPCexe]

A one time payout does sound like it would result in a short-lived hype and be largely unproductive. However, if I do recall correctly, didn't they promise to increase the dividend by 25% every year for (I think) 5 years? And if that's the case, then we will see an increase in Q1 of 2022.. maybe not all of it at once, but definitely something. So a bit more of a wait is in the cards I

[w8asec]

I think your history is for shiit, as I have seen it work well many times.... H3ll of a poor generalization, don't you think with over 10,000 public companies in the world, all having done many things.... good luck trading

[LiLy2021]

I don't understand why many people are so critical of Suncor's decision to cut dividend when oil plunged into the dumpster and cutting the dividend was so important to the company's survival. Unless people expected management to draw from credit to continue keeping the same payment. Dividends should only be paid when we can afford to.  Seeing how punitive it is to share price

[Obscure1]

LiLy:  Thanks for contributing to this board in a positive way.  I'm pretty sure everyone appreciates your particular insight whethere they mention it or not.  888 is a lot of luck packaged into one day.  I hope you are right, but given the odds of 8.88 against all other numbers, I would have to wager against you on that one.  One day, probably far from today, China

[mrbb]

i'll take more capital gain over an one time special dividend, namely less tax. Special tax rewards short term holders, they'll exit SU when they got the prize. Captial gain reward loyal investors.