I am asking you all to share your exit strategy, especially you, MigraineCall. It's so hard sitting on the sidelines. I kept telling myself that all the low-hanging fruits have been picked. All the pretty girls have been invited to the dance floor; what's left are the buck-toothed, flat-chested zit farms. I have been handsomely rewarded and I need to leave.
But it's almost impossible not to be "bouncy" when I still feel that making a million in oil has never been easier. It feels like Toronto real estate circa 2010's all over again.
The reason I decided to exit oil a few weeks back was because I can never see oil trading in a free market. The governments will always see oil at or above $100 as a big problem. What do governments do when they see problems? They quickly run to the "rescue" with their own "solutions". The problem with their solutions is that these solutions entail more problems than the problems themselves. In the end, we inevitably end up with a bigger problem than the problem we started with. The energy crisis is just one of the self-afflicted problems brought on by the governments' meddling. Only this time the governments can't print oil the same way they print fiat. Wouldn't it be nice if Mr. Biden, at a stroke of the keyboard, can magically conjure up a few trillion barrels? This is one of the arguments that support my bullish viewers.
The fact that countries all over the world (USA and EU) keep on drawing down their SPR is a sure indication of their hopelessness. It's akin to drawing from your savings to pay for a roof repair when you have just become unemployed. The savings will have to be replenished some time in the future, only it will be harder now that you're jobless. Imagine having to fill those SPR if oil hits $150.
I am just concerned about this high inflation making the cost of producing a barrel to go up, thereby affecting the producers' bottom line. There's a very loud outcry over labour shortages in the oil sector. I read an article about how many producers want to increase production but are not able to do so due to many workers not coming back to work in the oil fields.
I have slowly bought back some of the tickers I sold, but nowhere as many as before, and they're smaller cap producers. I still love SU and still think it's undervalued but I just don't have the patience for it any more.
I really would like to hear you sharing about your exit strategy. Are you holding these oil stocks long term and what's considered long term for you.
Happy Easter holiday. I am so grateful to read about your insights and experiences. Even Mr. Experienced who no longer owns SU or any oil stocks but continues sharing his thoughts and to help people like me to avoid making costly financial mistakes. I also rely on many posters here for your collective knowledge of the sector. Special thanks to MigraineCall for his hard work doing the research and sharing with all of us. You are here, there's nothing we fear. :-)
I am feeling very happy these days. Too much happiness is not good for my health because I can't sleep. I have always dreamed of seeing our men play at the World Cup. The dream has come true. When the referee blew the final whistle to herald that we were qualified for the World Cup, I found myself coiling on the floor sobbing. We beat the Americans and the Mexicans (a very strong team). John Herdman, if I ever meet you, I'm going to roll out the red carpet and invite you home for dinner with my family. That's my next plan--going to Qatar to help our boys carry the Cup home...heheheh
And to show you all my appreciation, I want to tell you a joke.
One day old man Stumpy and his wife Martha went to the Illinois State Fair. There is this man selling plane rides in his single prop show plane for $10 per person. Stumpy looks to Martha and says, "Martha, I think I really should try that." Martha replies, "I know you want to Stumpy, but we have a lot of bills, and you know the money is tight, and $10 is $10." So Stumpy goes without. Over the next few years they return every year, and the same thing, Stumpy wants to ride, but Martha says no money.
Finally, when Stumpy and Martha are both about 70 years old, Stumpy looks to Martha, and says, "Martha, I'm 70 now, and I don't know if I'll ever get the chance again, so I just have to have a ride in that there airplane." Martha replies in the same old fashion, and Stumpy kind of slumps down. The pilot is standing near by and overhears the conversation...
The pilot pipes up, "Excuse me folks, I couldn't help but hear your situation, and I have a deal for you. I'll take both of you up together, and if you can both make the entire trip without saying a word, or even making the slightest sound, I'll give the ride for free. But if either of you make a sound, its $10 each." Well, Martha and Stumpy look at each other, and agree to take the ride.
The pilot takes them up, and starts to do loop de loops, twists, dives, climbs and spins. No sound. The pilot lands the plane, looks back at Stumpy and says, "Sir, I have to hand it to ya, you didn't make even the slightest sound and that was my best stuff." Stumpy looks back at the pilot and says, "Well, I was gonna say something when Martha fell out, but $10 is $10!"