https://seekingalpha.com/article/4508230-suncor-energy-still-crushing-it
OPEC+ doesn't have much spare capacity, they can't even meet their quota every month.
The China covid lockdown will eventually subside and oil demand will resume.
Due to the climate change activist, gov't intervention and covid demand destruction, Oil companies were not spending enough on oil exploration,i believe about 35% of their previous amounts. They don't want to spend more after learning their lesson from when covid dropped the price of a barrel of oil to -$40. The oil companies are reducing debt and paying higher dividends. Without enough new oil discoveries the supply of oil will gradually diminish. Even if they start pouring large amounts of capital into exploration now, it is not like turning on a tap, it takes years before oil is extracted.
Even if the War were to be ended today, the sanctions will not end and even if it did, there won't be any substantial increase in oil supplies. The longer the war the less Russia can pump oil, then when their oil wells need maintenance and they can't get the US parts then once a well is shuttered it is hard to restart again. The future EU oil ban will cause Russia to sell to other countries like China and India but they can't take all the oil and Russia doesn't have enough capacity to store all their unsold oil, so it will be forced to shutter their oil wells.
Suncor has oil sands which have a life span for many, many years past 2050. If any company wants to build a comparable business emulating Suncor today, it will cost them tens of billions of dollars, if not more. This will serve as a moat.
The negatives are demand destruction if the price of oil goes too high, I estimate $130-150 level, some experts say $180.
Alternative energy uptake is speeded up exponentially, which I think is not likely in the near and medium term. The whole energy ecosystem needs to be updated which takes a lot of capital and time.
A new pandemic emerges.
World war III happens but then the world is finished and nothing matters anymore.