Suncor Energy Inc. T.SU

Crack spreads

[lifeisgood1010]

I think many are not factoring the historical crack spread margins.

While down 29 % from their June 3rd all time high, they are still 3.5 times higher than the average
of the past 16 years.

I beleive that Suncor mngt were under promising in their Q2 remarks and will exceed expectations.

That will be a nice change.

In any events, these intergrated company are trading at huge discounts again to their historical valuations.

Ben Graham and Warren buffett would that we have a huge margin of safety.

Staying long, i think we will see $50+ before year end

[Clemxb7]

In the Q2 information they reference NY Harbour Heating oil 2-1-1 as the crack to calculate forward guidance. They actually mention 3 different 2-1-1 regional cracks though all were fairly similar in price Q2. That number is still much higher than RBOB 3-2-1. It has stayed over $50 USD Q3.  2 years ago it was around $15. I think it's down from Q2 (like oil) though not as much .It’ looks

[lifeisgood1010]

Fully agree with you Clemxb7.As i write this post, the 3-2-1 spread is $45.05US or $58.20 CDN. I have been traking this since 2007.My data base is huge and i can say with certainty that SU is making more than 3 times the avg return on their refining units. I think many short term traders got in prior to aug. 4th in expectation of a boost of the dividend. Bloomberg had the analysts consensus of