I'll be presenting my arguments for why the US will be entering a recession in 2023. It is my belief that the recession will begin in Q3 but can easily spill into Q4. Let's just say it begins in the second half.
1) The Consumer Conference Board of economic leading indicators is down 4.5% from Sept 2022-March 2023 which is negative over a 6 month period. This indicator forecasts that growth in the economy is expected to slow considerably by mid year. The Consumer Conference Board peaked In February 2022 and has been declining since. For some historical context, it took 21 months, 11 months and 18 months for the recession to arrive after reaching peak levels in the last 3 recessions. We are now 14 months in and negative 4.5% over a 6-month period. Not looking good.
2) Construction employment lags housing starts by about 1 year. Many housing projects will be completed in the second half of the year and housing starts are significantly lower than they were a year ago. I expect layoffs in the construction sector in the near future when new job creations are not outpacing job completions. This is very reminiscent of summer/fall of 2007 in the residential sector. The commercial real estate industry is another issue altogether that is not to be ignored.
3) The recession typically begins a couple months after the Fed Funds peaks. This is the average length of time it takes for a recession to begin after Fed Funds has peaked going back from 1957. In the next meeting in May, it is expected the Fed to raise 25 bps and it might be the last raise of the year before they pause.
That's it for now.
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/recession/Leading-Indicators-Recession
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST