Suncor Energy Inc T.SU

If it's not one thing, it's your Mother

[Obscure1]

My Mom, bless her soul, had a good sense of humour.  She once gave me a set of cocktail napkins that said "If it's not one thing it's your Mother"

I tried to learn about oil over the past couple of years.  Ultimately, the main thing that I learned about oil is that "If it's not one thing, it's you Mother."

Here's a quick (not comprehensive list of factors that have affected oil in a BIG way over the last couple of years:

Covid and the senseless shutdown of the world
SPR drains. 
Ukraine war. 
Russia's many ways to circumvent embargoes
China/Taiwan 
China economic meltdown (or is it?  nobody will ever know)
Exploding interest rates

And that is just a list of some of the major events.  Beyond that are the myriad of events (weather, geopolitical, etc) that move oil prices like a yo-yo

Worst of all  from I can tell is that oil price moves have a lot more to do with paper manipulation as opposed to physical oil.  The actions of professional oil traders massively overwhelm the performance of any given company when it comes to the company's share price.  UGH

Bottom line????

Nobody has a clue wtf is going to happen with oil prices in the short or even the medium term. 

In the long term, the world is not going to stop using oil completely.  However oil accounts for 60% of all energy use (transportation and power grid) and that number is heading much lower much faster than any Suncor shareholder is willing to admit. 

Unless you are an incredibly well informed and skilled oil trader, the oil industry is not going to treat you well going forward.

[Experienced]

Thanks Obscure - interesting post Your post got me thinking about all the changes I have seen over the decades in the investing world and wondered if those changes were a good thing or bad thing. Before going on, I must warn people that what I have to say will be considered OT by many and if you are one of them please stop reading here. What you were talking about in your post in one sense is

[matt2018]

Obscure, some of the points you make on "factors that are affecting price of Oil" can be applied to most sectors. You mention Ukraine specifically, how about the export of wheat?  A good business for them, they were #5 in world before the invasion. "Exploding interest rates" affect most businesses, just look at recent banking meltdown. Are you implying that only energy

[Experienced]

Good points Matt....BUT... Guess it depends a lot on what your investment objectives are. Let's suppose that what you say is correct about the world supply and demand balance in the future.  In some sense what you are saying is basic economics and is hard to refute.  For investors whose investment objectives are to achieve an above average total return on their investment then it

[matt2018]

Experienced..... We alraedy know, all forms of energy will be required to meet future world demands. We all recall Northeast blackout of 2003. Equipment failures caused the power to be out 9 days in most places.  It was quite a wide area that affected large number of hydro consumers. You speak alot about EV.  Yes, they will be part of the transportation equation for sure, but do you

[Experienced]

Good points and a good question Matt... I am not necessarly a fan of EVs ( I am just being a pragmatic investor and looking at the world through as clear a set of glasses as I can).  I mentioned in a post a while back, that over the years when we have gone through transformative times, it is a safer investment not to try to pick the winners such as in this case which EV maker will win or be