Suncor Energy Inc T.SU

EIA Crude build +3m, Gasoline -3.2m, Dist -4.2m

[MigraineCall]

Big draws on products, while the crude build seen equals the SPR draws.

Implied gasoline demand jumps, even surpassing last years gasoline demand, at the same time gasoline and diesel inventories are dropping when they should be seasonally building.

Net export / import has even grown by 1m bpd, meaning they brought in more crude than the week before.

Canadian wildfire oil outages are forecast to be .5m bpd, (Rystad).

Such a bullish report again.  Yet the market drops.




US petroleum inventories (crude, SPR, refined products) fell by 2.441mb to 1,596.753mb last week - EIA



Implied gasoline demand moves to up 1% vs year ago on YTD basis Gasoline Implied Demand (000 bpd)YoY Chg
2016 9,327
2017 9,264 -1%
2018 9,312 1%
2019 9,340 0%
2020 8,140 -13%
2021 8,974 10%
2022 8,696 -3%
2022 YTD 8,637
2023 YTD 8,690 +1% <- this



EIA data, week ending 5/5 Crude oil: +3.0M Domestic prod: 12.3MMbpd SPR: -2.9M Cushing: +0.4M Gasoline: -3.2M Impld mogas demand: 9.3Mbpd Distillates: -4.2M Refiner utilz: 91.0% Total exports: 9.24MMbpd

US implied oil demand (product supplied) up by 359kbpd w/w to 20.164mbpd last week w/w changes in kbpd gasoline +685 jet fuel +378 distillate +163 residual fuel oil -3 propane/propylene -651 other oils -214

US crude imports by origin incl w/w changes in kbpd Canada -257 to 3269 Mexico -313 to 393 Saudi Arabia +139 to 381 Colombia -96 to 47 Iraq +99 to 247 Ecuador +88 to 145 Nigeria -71 to 143 Brazil +71 to 139 Libya +99 to 99

[mrmomo]

Migraine......Those EIA numbers are totally fudged just as the ludicruous inflation figures are. The American Gov't is just a propaganda machine as much as China & Russia are. When the need is there or required for a certain agenda, they (meaning all 3) will use ANY & ALL methods to achieve that goal. Those EIA numbers are as useful as a wet noodle and no one should put too much

[MigraineCall]

I think it would be more correct to say weekly inventory numbers are subject to data accuracy issues, and reporting timing. I wouldn't go so far as to say they are fudged. That's a lot of fudge. There are timing issues regarding exactly when a shipment has loaded, if it falls on one week or the next.  There are also reporting issues regarding blending, where crude or product has been

[mrmomo]

I don't totally agree with your assessement BUT at least you do realize the numbers aren't totally accurate in their current form. BUT let me put to you another way........Do you think the inflation data from the US Gov't is on point and reliable?

[MigraineCall]

Personally, I hate the way they cut up the inflation data, and focus the headline number on certain segments. The overall headline number we all should be following should be ex- nothing, and include rents, energy, food, taxes, carbon taxes, and so on. However, it is important for the Fed to know exactly what sectors of the economy are adding the largest and smallest increases, but not as the

[Torontojay]

A lot of the non farm payroll is simply the same person having to add a second or third job just to continue to pay the bills. It's not unique individual job creation that headline media makes you believe.  What type of jobs are being created? Full time or part time?  I can tell you for sure it's not full time jobs.  Layoffs rising can be a leading indicator of the

[teebore]

Tangently related to the large gasoline draw reported today. I had an interesting conversation with some friends this past weekend about the upcoming summer holidays they have planned. The concensus was that flying was too expensive and most were planning 1000km+ road trips. This particular group of friends are late forties early fifties and all have a decent disposable income. It was a bit odd in

[Hightowntrader]

I just got back from Florida.  I would estimate less than 5% EV/Hybrid seen on the roads, and a ton of large SUV's running on the freeway.  Some Ubers were doing hybrids. Airport stuffed, Disney and Universal stuffed, buses shuttling non stop, cash thrown around quite freely...My family has 2-3 more flight trips this year and a lot of driving to do too. Maybe 2024 will have the

[Torontojay]

The US consumer is still sitting on $1 trillion in excess savings. It is decreasing at a rate of ~ $100b per month and by February 2024 this savings will be depleted.  Inflation is going to fall hard and interest rates will come for the ride.  Here is the fun math part. If US consumers are losing $100b in excess savings per month, that works out to $1.2 t over 12 months or the

[ztransforms173]

In my opinion, a combination of lower inflation and real economic growth is almost a certainty over the next 12 months. You can't buy on credit forever either. Somethings got to give. - your rosy picture is simply not believable - there is a lot of fake government data in the US and a ground level snapshot is not pretty - there are major layoffs underway and people are being crushed

[Torontojay]

What crack are you smokin?  Read my post again.  I believe inflation is going to fall hard and that we are going to enter a recession to kill it. This is consistent with a decrease in real gdp.         

[Experienced]

Jay...with all due respect when I read your post, I had to reread the last sentence again as I drew the same conclusion as zt but figured that you couldn't mean that so I read it again.

[Torontojay]

Does it not make sense when I say,  negative real gdp "growth" ?  Put another way, the "growth" rate in real gdp is negative?     

[Experienced]

jay....lol Your statement was "lower inflation and real economic growth".  It is a classic example of why the English language as opposed to other languages (eg French) can be ambiguous... We don't need to dwelt on this but IMO zt is a great contributor to this Board and IMO you were a bit harsh with him (her?) when it was unwarranted. Case closed as far as I am concerned.

[Torontojay]

This is a bit of a mathematical joke but I guess I should have put brackets around "inflation and real economic growth" ?  A little bedmas humour. 

[Experienced]

LOL Mathematics is much more precise as far as languages go...lol

[Hightowntrader]

It looks as if my guestimate was pretty good as I decided to look it up.  Florida is perhaps one of the best enviroments for EV (maybe a little too hot), and is in 2nd place for adoption, after California. I would think the Northern States are barely changing. What is the EV adoption rate in Florida? "); display: inline-block; height: 24px; width: 24px; transform: rotateZ

[marketsense]

This is patently outrageous.  An SPR draw  of 2.9M bbls to create a so called inventory build is like trying to pull the wool over everyone's eyes.  Yet there it is and the market succumbs to this narrative like flies to you know what.  On top of that you have inflation numbers coming in at a modest decline which I'm sure will put further rate hikes on pause pending