Suncor Energy Inc T.SU

SU share price breaking out to the downside

[Obscure1]

I'm not a technical analyst.

I don't have MigraineCell's knowledge or experience with the oil industry

What I can do is look at and interpret numbers. To that end, the SU share price today has broken below recent lows.  The one year price chart shows that the only time SU shares have traded below the current price was on the week of Sept 19, 2022 when it closed at $36.95 but actually traded down to $36.39.  IF the SU share price doesn't recover by the end of the day, my guess is that it might test the year low.  IF if breaks through the year low....I'm not a technical analyst :)

I don't dispute any of MigraineCell's data pointing to low reserves etc. and future demand etc. 

What I see is a market that is expecting a 10%+ drop over the summer.  I also see a market that wants to punish stocks even if companies "meet" concensus expectations.  Basically, nobody wants to be in the market these days.  With summer vacations on the horizon, there is very little appetite to be adding to anything. 

The expectations for SU is that quarterly earnings will continue to decrease YoY which no investor wants to see.  The same thing applies to most of the stocks out there, so I'm not picking on SU.

What is SU doing that would make somebody want to buy SU shares? 

The new CEO is talking about cutting costs which is always a good thing.  The company is reducing debt which is also a good thing but only to a point. 

Public companies are built on their ability to leverage growth through inexpensive debt and the ability to raise capital.  SU is doing neither.  In fact, SU is shrinking capital by using its profits to pay back shareholders.  Dividends are a good thing, but only if it doesn't come at the cost of growth.  However, the market looks at companies that are paying big dividends but not growing as poor investments as they are viewed as not knowing what to do with their money (Experienced has also posted about this in the past). 

I see a company that is attempting to "batten down the hatches" to squeeze out as much profit as it can for as long as it can.  If that is the case, will the cash received in the form of dividends exceed the inevitable depreciation in share price?  I don't think so but I could be wrong.

[barneyj44]

Obscure earnings may be lower then the previos quarter but Suncor still posted $1.8 billion in earnings. Thats nothing to sneeze about . This sell off doesnt make sense...

[Obscure1]

barneyj44:  You are correct that SU's earnings are impressive.  I expect SU's earnings to continue to be impressive for as long as the price of oil doesn't drop off and as long as there is demand for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. SU is unique with its vertical integration which is currently a strength.  My worry is what happens when the demand for gasoline drops off

[barneyj44]

Obsure1 I like that they are rebranding the Canadian Tire stations (200 retail outlets)with the Petro -Canada  brand . They will also partner on there rewards program. I can also see them installing EV charging stations in the future and selling more products out of the Gas stations.  

[Obscure1]

The key to the future for PetroCan stations will be installing EV chargers as you suggested. Here is the problem with trying to compete with what will soon be a widespread network of Tesla Superchargers going forward: * Tesla is rapidly building out EV Superchargers in Europe and North America * Tesla is currently charging about 25% less than its competitors in Europe for charging * Telsa is

[matt2018]

New York does get power from Quebec but they pay for it according to article below (Sept/2021). You are reffering to the great deal Wynne made when she purchased contract for too much power and had to sell acess for below production costs.  Hydro-Qubec inks $20B, 25-year deal to power New York state Tentative agreement would help 'turn the page on New York City's long-standing

[Experienced]

Irrespective of all that TSLA is doing, the average mileage per day is around 50km and pretty much anyone in a house will be charging their cars at home so they won't need TSLA or any of the other places to charge except on road trips..  Many condos will also have the capability for owners to charge their EVs as well. This basically will increasingly reduce the need for gas stations as

[mrbb]

yes, condo living, electrifying cars, eating insects, all according to WEF agenda.  got your hyundai ionic yet? I hope you inform your home insurer that you will be parking an EV in your garage. 

[mrbb]

yes, EVs are so great, we needed gov'ts to mandate to phase out ICE sales and then shoved billions upon billions of grants, subsidies to EV manufacturers, infrastructure and EV buyers. Why do something so good and advantageous like the EVs that we needed gov'ts to push us into it, like the covid vaccine? {^youtubevideo|(width)425|(height)264|(rel)False|(url)https://www.youtube.com/watch

[pooltec]

God forbid the Gov. spend money on things that really matter long term care, hosptials, education freeways. ............

[mariorizzi]

OMG! Really? A 1 mile stretch of electric road in Detroit? Wow, that will surely kill off the oil and gas industry. Bloody genius you are!

[mrbb]

at 60 mph, that comes to 1 whole minute of charging.  Electric roadways could accelerate EV adoption by charging vehicles while moving or parked, but at a high cost to taxpayers – most of whom don’t drive EVs. Statewide, there are 5.8 million gas vehicles, 13,545 EVs, and 105,651 hybrid vehicles registered. The $1.9 million spent to build one mile of EV road could have repaired 792

[mrbb]

just like how the experts have told past alberta premiers and oil executives to diversify out of oil and gas? How alberta should get out of oil/gas and into renewable energy like wind and solar during the last oil crunch? How idiotic an idea was that? To compete with china that uses slave labor, no environment ethic, owns 90% of rare earth metal reserves, #1 lithum processor.  It