Suncor Energy Inc T.SU

Now what?

[MigraineCall]

Unless they have a backup plan B, C, or D to execute, I guess all that cash will go back to the shareholders as debt payments, more share buybacks, and increased dividends. 

Looks like the tax man will love me again this year.

[maramos98]

Looks like Total is now stuck with it's 31% stake in Fort Hills which they don't want....I smell a discount coming suncors way.

[autofocus111]

@maramos98 Agree. SU is going to get a great deal on TTE's stake in FortHills now.  I suspect SU had strategized for this exact outcome all along.

[Experienced]

Autofocus - You might be right but, personally, I think it is actually the other way around.  My answer to this also relates to my Point 2 in my previous post.  It seems to me that SU structured the deal with Total as an All-in to use a poker analogy and get called with a better hand. Here's why... If you look at Slide 4 of the SU investor presentation of the deal, you see that

[autofocus111]

Desperation? SU has approx a decade runway to resolve the issue of feed for the base plant.  No 'operational urgency' for them either. TTE was willing to sell the combined FH+Surmont assets for ~4B+.  They will still hit that disposition target with two separate sales, so no good reason why they won't proceed with a sale of their FortHills stake to SU, especially now that the

[mrbb]

autofocus111 agree, SU desperate to fill its upgraders? what a a joke analysis by one's self declared experienced. Paint the deal as complicated and highly schemed does make one sounds like an expert on the topic.   Clemxb7 already pointed out a publicly known fact that SU almost achieved the nameplate 194 kb/day prior to covid. With some debottlenecking and optimization, SU can

[mrbb]

here is SU presentation material for the proposed acquistion from total. as you can see SU doesn't need the extra production from acquired fort hills until after 2035 Investor Update – Acquisition of Total Canada (suncor.com)

[Experienced]

Autofocus... Good points.  We will obviously will have to wait to see how this plays out. Line 5 is important to SU in terms of refinery feedstock for sure.  I agree that a disruption/closure of that line is a low probability event. That said, things have shifted a bit in Michigan where a Democrat defeated a Republican for a seat on the state Supreme Court and flipped the power balance

[mrbb]

Good points.  We will obviously will have to wait to see how this plays out. you should have used your famous line "Time will tell", it's much shorter. 

[meritmat]

What's the chance Cop sells the whole works to Suncor?  

[Experienced]

Meritmat...In a word - ZERO