Suncor Energy Inc T.SU

I don't understand why anyone would invest in Suncor now

[Obscure1]

" But because they are poor, they will choose the cheapest source of energy*. Which in the future will be coal and oil"

I respectfully disagree with the above statement. 

Elon recently met with Prime Minister Modi in the States.  At the conclusion of the meeting, Musk indicated that Tesla would be investing heavily in India as soon as humanly possible.  Musk was talking about energy structure as much as cars. 

India will be building out a solar/battery storage future that will lift the country out of poverty.  India will not be relying upon coal and oil for much longer. 

This past weekend, all of Europe received free electricity.  It is anticipated that the trend will continue with more weekends going forward.  As the solar/battery storage infrastructure gets built out (it is already cheaper to build a new solar/battery storage infrastructure than to simply continue to operate the current oil based system) there will be free evenings and holidays.  Eventually, as the dispatchable solar/batter infrastructure becomes the basis of India's energy grid, energy will be very inexpensive.  Future prognosticators like Tony Seba say energy will be virtually free in the next decade. 

Despite India's huge energy needs, Musk says that they required space to provide that energy from solar will only be about 1% of India's land.  Cheap energy is what builds economies and India is going to become a powerhouse in the future with its huge internal market and virtually free energy.  

Australia is already dealing with "too much energy" and is also giving it away.  The list goes on, but I think everyone understands my point. 

The risk/reward curve for Suncor is currently terrifying IMO.  The stock isn't trading under $40 because oil is trading at $70.   

Does that mean SU won't ever have another day(s) in the sun?  I dunno, as oil prices are controlled by paper movers, but I believe that betting on SU going back up to old highs based upon some elusive demand trigger is scary AF.  

Let's see what happens by 2030.  I just hope that you will think carefully about putting too many eggs in the SU basket because you like the dividend. 

[matt2018]

So after Musk recently met with Modi, and they had an exciting conversation about solar/battery, you are concluding that "India will not be relying upon coal and oil for much longer".   What time frame are you talking about? If you are talking about 2030, perhaps they can start to reverse the trends mentioned below if they are all serious about putting up the money needed to

[ztransforms173]

India will be building out a solar/battery storage future that will lift the country out of poverty.  India will not be relying upon coal and oil for much longer. - are you completely DELUSIONAL or just a RANK IGNORAMUS - India is the FASTEST GROWING crude oil consumer of the largest economies in the world today (ranked SIXTH largest economy in US GDP and MOVING to the THIRD position by

[mrbb]

U captured alot there. I didn't say much of those things before as very little people read my posts anyway.  Tesla is allowed to expand because it follows the master's game plan, world wide electrification and dependency. It's no brainer NG and nuclear power are superior but are suppressed while pushing for flaky solar and wind power. Even if india start investing renewable solar

[mrbb]

typo All others are still not profitable with gov't subsidies and theft of western technology.  

[Experienced]

Couple of questions mrbb.. If BYD is slightly profitable in your opinionwith these numbers... https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/1211.HK/financials?p=1211.HK What is your definition of profitable? and... Question 2 What would your definition then be for Ford? https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/F/financials/ As for India... https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/renewables/reliance-to

[ztransforms173]

Experienced - (7/4/2023 7:08:03 AM)   RE:RE:RE:I don't understand why anyone would invest in Suncor now https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/india-has-become-power-surplus-net-exporter-in-9-years-r-k-singh/articleshow/101197134.cms# - this LOUDMOUTH Indian power minister talks BOTH SIDES of his mouth - the ELECTRICITY exports to Bangladesh is

[ztransforms173]

- one more thing * if India starting building USD 15 billion SEMI-CONDUCTOR plants and becomes an ALTERNATE world manufacturing and supply center REPLACING China than that "SURPLUS PROJECTED" Indian electric power in the medium term will RAPIDLY DISAPPEAR z173

[meritmat]

2030 is 6.5 years out.......Energy demand will still be increasing  Kinda funny we were out camping with some friends about 3-4 hours from Ft Mac.  One of the guys we met worked as a welder in one of SU mines.   I asked him if there's any slow down....he said nope.  There's generations of work up there.  There not slowing down if anything there expanding 

[mrmomo]

Obscure, though i agree with many of your points, i think in the next 10 years O&G will still play a significant role in the economy and will still have a place for investors to exploit some porfitable opportunties as well. I think the key here is to selcetive and choose the right companies. And this is where i agree with you that Suncor is NOT the best option for investors who wish to have

[cashtango00]

Here are some fun facts for those that think oil is disappearing soon. Despite the adoption of EVs and renewable energy in first-world countries, oil demand is rising not falling, and is now above 102m bbls/day worldwide. Case study: Norway Norway's oil consumption remains flat near its all-time high despite being one of the greenest shifts of any country in the world.  They presently

[Experienced]

With respect, IMO your point cashtango and those of others here is missing the point. I have talked about this before here but I guess it is worth repeating. The debate about whether there will still be a need for oil for the rest of the lifetime of even the youngest person on this Board is irrelevant.  Most investors have as an objective to maximize their investment returns while taking on

[cashtango00]

I understand your point of view, but I think it comes down to relative valuations.  If oil supply and demand stayed relatively flat and pricing was rangebound for the foreseeable future, most long reserve companies are trading at 3-5x cashflows.  I agree the growth has left the industry, but those are strong cashflows relative to any other industry I can find.  Again, there is no

[matt2018]

To add to cashtango00 remarks, there is also more upside perception now on energy stocks (especially the ones with deep reserves) as many learned from the past that an increase to price of oil., didn't do much for their stock prices.  The extra profits were plowed back into higher Capex to keep increasing production, only to have a hard time renewing their debt loads.  The bankers

[Experienced]

Valid point cashtango....however.. The SP of SU is not just dependent on what happens to oil prices. They get a significant percentage of their FCF from PC and refineries.  The more EVs there are, the less people will need PC stations and hence less need for their refineries. Anyway we could debate this forever, so I hope it works out for you and the other SU longs.  For me I see SU as

[Torontojay]

My 2 cents on this debate.  If the price is right, and even if the future looks cloudy, then it could make sense to invest in oil stocks.  I.e, the cash flows are expected to decline by 10% per year indefinitely but the company is trading at 4 times free cash flows. From a mathematical point of view, the company is attractively priced on a risk adjusted basis.