Suncor Energy Inc T.SU

Is Putin going to play his oil ace?

[Clemxb7]

It's a controversial opinion though my perception - and I have been following the narrative closely - is Putin has misplayed his originally percived strong hand badly and managed to step on his own weenie hard these last 18 months. 

The indisputable facts are hydrocarbon revenues for Russia have tanked very significantly since the imposition of sanctions. Oligarchs yachts and Italian villas have been seized. The Russian army has suffered massive losses of men and equipment. Except for right wing nuts world opinion is solidly against the war he started. Plainly speaking Putin is behind the eight ball because he has revealed himself to not be a 3D chess master but rather a sick animal reduced to hitting civilian targets. One could argue Biden lured Putin into Ukraine like a rube and is now pounding his army and possibly Putin himself into dust.

One ace Putin thought would give him free rein in the Ukraine was Russia's large presence in the world oil markets. You have to admit the way the west has so far forced Putin to sell is oil below market to India and China is something he - and nobody else -  ever saw coming. It has been rather genius that the west has nullified Putin and gotten India and China onside by making them the beneficiaries of his misery.

Putin still holds the oil card ace. Of interest is what allies Saudi and China have been doing. The Saudis have cut production while China has been stockpiling and recently cut products exports. Do they know something is coming?

The American electorate is unsophisticated enough to possibly be swayed by high gas prices only. Ideally Putin would love to see his pal Trump back in power. Trump has his problems because the US government is going hard for his jugular and he is in serious legal peril right now. Not all possible replacement Republican candidates would be as friendly to Putin as Trump is though any would likely be better for Putin than Biden is.

Putin needs a way out of his corner. Will he punish the West with high oil prices as the election approaches? 

I don't know what the answer to this question is. However I don't see what else he can do except spike prices to cause chaos and try to get the West to lose faith in the war.

Maybe owning shares in a solid producer like Suncor in safe Canada isn't as dumb as many people have been saying these last few months. When one considers the politics of the world and the oil markets it might not be bad to own the granddaddy of the oil sands.

[ztransforms173]

- you GEOPOLITICAL analysis is UNADULTERATED BRAINWASHED  MALARKY - the FIVE EYES CABAL+ DOUBLECROSSED the Russians on the MINSK Agreements, initiated a "COLOR" revolution in Ukraine and set the INITIAL CONDITIONS for a GENOCIDAL WAR of ATTRITION to IRREVERSIBLY WEAKEN the Russian Federation and FIGHT to the LAST UKRAINIAN - while sanctions have HURT the Russian economy, BLOWBACK

[ztransforms173]

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[vr6loco]

Ya we know there is propaganda spewing on both sides of this war.  Either way, there is a threat to Russian supply and production.  You can skip to the 7 min mark on how this may benefit WCS. https://youtu.be/ydv_3n5__2I

[mrbb]

 Time to spread some freedom in Niger. I wonder why there isn't a war fought to secure lithium or neodymium supply, only for oil and uranium that the west hated so much.