Suncor Energy Inc T.SU

EIA: Crude -6.135, Gasoline +1.5, Dist +0.95

[MigraineCall]

Adjustments down.
Exports and imports both down.
US lower 48 production up.
Implied oil demand down.

EIA data, week ending 8/18
Crude oil: -6.1M
Domestic prod: 12.8MMbpd
SPR: +0.6M
Cushing: -3.1M
Gasoline: +1.5M
Impld mogas demand: 8.91Mbpd
Distillates: +0.9M
Refiner utilz: 94.5%
Total exports: 10.54MMbpd





WTI Oil Down 1.5% at $78.50 as US Crude Output Hits Another 3-Year High

EIA (wk ending 18 August) Crude: -6.135M Cushing: -3.133M Gasoline: 1.467M Distillates: 0.945M



US implied oil demand fell by 498kbpd w/w to 21.165mbpd last week w/w changes i n kbpd gasoline +59 jet fuel +149 distillate +188 residual fuel oil -70 propane/propylene -270 other oils -555


– exports – down 0.34 mm bopd week to week – L48 oil production – up 0.1 mm bopd (that’s up 0.6 mm bopd in 3 weeks due to new math) Gasoline – UP 1.5 mm barrels (vs -0.7 mm exp) – implied demand – up slightly to 8.9 mm bpd (soft for time of year)

Distillates – UP 0.9 mm barrels (vs +0.6 mm exp) – implied demand – up almost 0.2 mm bpd week to week, still soft for year down 5% YTD same period to 2022. Nutshell: Positive side of neutral.

Oil – DOWN 6.1 mm barrels (vs -2.9 mm exp) – throughput – up slightly to 16.776 mm bopd, new high for 2023 – imports – down 0.225 mm bopd week to week

US implied oil demand fell by 498kbpd w/w to 21.165mbpd last week w/w changes i n kbpd gasoline +59 jet fuel +149 distillate +188 residual fuel oil -70 propane/propylene -270 other oils -555



US crude imports by origin in kbpd (incl. w/w changes)
Canada +327 to 3832
Mexico -121 to 780
Saudi Arabia -64 to 221
Colombia +215 to 290
Iraq -21 to 283
Ecuador -171 to 192
Nigeria -218 to 89
Brazil +68 to 198
Libya +2 to 85

[matt2018]

thanks Migraine.  ironically, all these extra barrels from Cda (extra 327k bbl/day for the week) is whats keeping WTI price down in a way. Hopefully through TMX, they can divert some bbls to somewhere else or away from Cushing. Saudi imports are really dropping off but it's made up with the increased domestic production thats been rising weekly now.  That got to be frustrating for