Suncor Energy Inc T.SU

Will we get back to $50.37 - Year High?

[integrity11]

I think there is a decent chance we can get back to $50+ this fall. 

Of course a lot depends on oil price staying above $80 WTI. And the manipulation of the stock by the hedge funds and shorters. The EIAs weekly manipulated numbers (magically adding 500,000 bod when rig count has fallen by over 100 rigs in last year), playing with the weekly adjustments and weekly exports. As much as EIA try's to influence the price US oil inventory is continuing to drop in a big way. Now the hedge funds and all shorters are using China downturn as a reason to try to drive down the price. Right now China wants lower oil price and all raw materials and they will make up numbers as they always do. Biden will do his best to try to bring on more production from Iran and Venezuela.

But in the end imo OPEC will continue to control price over $80. The US producers are for once trying to keep production flat or to a small increase. Demand is increasing as world is still recovering from Covid meaning demand still increasing.

just some thoughts. All the best to SU shareholders on this board. Let's drive towards $50. Thankfully it seems we have a CEO capable of getting us there. I personally think we should be closer to $60.

[oilandgasmick]

I think USA production is being constrained because of the decline in "sweet spots" which characterize this type of reservoir. When you frack a shale it has to be a fairly high "silica" content (as opposed to clay rich minerals) or the energy of the frac will not be a horizontal propogation-- but rather a vertical one. The energy from the frac has to go somewhere so if it can

[mrbb]

shale oil business is like running a hamster treadwheel, it has to keep drilling to keep production going or else the steep decline will catch up. Each year, newer well decline rate get worse. It will need higher and higher oil price to justify newer wells. 

[Experienced]

Oilandgasmick......Good points and thanks for the technical explanation - much appreciated. I might add that the issue you talk about in terms of the sweet spots is also made worse by a tendency of producers to high grade their properties especially when oil prices are low like they have been in the recent past and especially during the COVID panic. In terms of the environmental pushback you

[matt2018]

I hear you guys on the challenges of shale oil business and while it does makes sense, it's not adding up? According to EIA Field Production of Crude Oil, it peaked at 13M b/d in Nov/2019. It tanked in May/20 down to 9.7M and then eventually built back up to the 11M b/d range and stayed there for much of 2021 & 2022, going back above 12M again in Sept 2022. For 2023 it's been

[mrbb]

one gotta applause the ingenuity of the oil frackers.  They are drilling longer and longer Hz well and going back to refrack the oil hz wells. This reduces the demand for drilling rigs.  I dunno if workover rigs get counted with the drilling rig count statistic.

[mrbb]

typo and going back to refrack the old hz shale wells. 

[MigraineCall]

Matt, great point. This is a very important issue.  Why is US Oil production reportedly increasing while rig counts and other data shows it should be dropping? On the surface, it doesn't add up. I posted many weeks ago and over time, various tables and charts showing why we should soon be seeing decreasing US shale production. I think it is still coming, but will be a little later

[mrbb]

Oilandgasmick......Good points and thanks for the technical explanation - much appreciated. Once again, you showed how easy to fool someone without science background, and how lazy you didn't even do simple checking before swallowing the 'technical explanation'.  I bet you also bought the science of covid vaccination sung by our politicians, and bought and paid for media. 

[mrbb]

excuse me, my browser is stuck with microsoft bing i haven't use google for a long time since upgrading browser to MS Edge.  this is what i got when i search for 'shale oil frack orientation' shale oil frack orientation - Search (bing.com)

[oilandgasmick]

MRBB--Not sure what you are asking here. This diagram is for "homogenous" sedimentary environments and not "heterogeneous" ones which would describe most of the shale basins. The permeability is directional--it is also called anisotropic. I don't understand the reference to the vaccine(s). Was this in response to my posts? I have never discussed this topic.

[oilandgasmick]

Here is a quick google to help you understand why high clay content is detrimental to fracking. It is certainly not an old wive's tale. You want more quartz rich (Si-O2) minerals because they are more brittle and thus easier to frack.  "A high clay content is generally considered to be detrimental to the reservoir during fracturing because it can reduce or block pore throats

[mrbb]

i understand all that, brittle rock crack easier.  Geology 101 or there is a huge study just to say brittle rock frack easier. A New Evaluation Method for the Fracability of a Shale Reservoir Based on the Structural Properties (hindawi.com)  you still haven't explain how quartz vs clay content of a rock dictate the frac orientation preference.  You are still circling around

[mrbb]

technically, there is no such thing as a true homogenous reservoir (ex. 100% quartz or 100% clay).  What we mean by homogenous are in general macro sense. If you truly believe frac goes certain direction because of variation of quartz vs clay content (IE heterogenous reservoirs), please provide those studies, statistic or experimental data that you based your conviction to your thesis. I'

[oilandgasmick]

Sorry MRBB but I am busy drinking some cold brews on the deck and dinner also approaches so this technical discussion will have to wait for another day but I promise you that clay content is detrimental to fracking operations and a key reason why "sweet spots" typically have low clay content. Until then have a cold one yourself and maybe grab a small bag of edibles. Tell your wife to

[mrbb]

no problem. It does seem you are confused with ease of fracking versus direction orientation of fracking. I have no qualm about high clay content rock does not frack easily. 

[mrbb]

shale oil rock can be brittle too and that doesn't stop fracker from fracking them Shale Oil Reducing US Oil Imports by $75 Billion Per Year - Industry Tap

[integrity11]

Lol k havd never heard of oil and gas being produced from a quartz reservoir in NA. I think you are getting confused with gold.  Apparently trace amounts of oil found in quartz in Pakistan?

[mrbb]

i don't want to drag this on but oil sand rock formation is comprised of +90% sandstone. After removing the bitumen, those sands are like beach sands, make excellent sand for sand trap in golf courses. 

[oilandgasmick]

The Oil that is produced is certainly not from quartz and no we are not talking about gold. The oil is produced from pore spaces in the shale and siltstones and in a few cases some very fine grained sands. The reference to quartz is how much of the mineralogy of these 3 mentioned clastics is actually quartz and not clay minerals but they are certainly not pure quartz. The clay minerals block the

[integrity11]

Thanks Mick. Although I am certainly not an expert I do have some knowledge of fracking and 100% agree with your posts. Nice to have posters on this board that have great knowledge of the oil and gas industry and are willing to share their knowledge.

[oilandgasmick]

Thank you for the compliment. I am a geologist and worked in the oil industry many years before retiring a few years back ---although I did not work in the oil sands group. That said, there is a lot I don't know and I invite other engineers and geologists (and other technical people) to come on the board to offer their opinions. I too am frustrated with the nut cases who come on here telling

[mrbb]

When you frack a shale it has to be a fairly high "silica" content (as opposed to clay rich minerals) or the energy of the frac will not be a horizontal propogation-- but rather a vertical one. The energy from the frac has to go somewhere so if it can't propogate in a horizontal direction then it will move in a vertical plane and "break" uphole and in the process destroy