Suncor Energy Inc T.SU

EIA: Crude -6.3M Gasoline -2.67M Dist +0.7M

[MigraineCall]

Another huge crude draw.
Gasoline draws as well.
Adjustment factor up again.


WTI Holds Near 10-Month Highs As Total US Crude Stock Hit 1985 Lows. Meanwhile gasoline prices soar.



DOE's Oil adjustment "fudge" factor +1.198MM, highest in over a month. Means the real Crude draw is more like 8MM

Quick EIA analysis: Gasoline demand number of 9.32-mil b/d probable overstatement but watch PADD5 gas where inventory is tight. Diesel is propped up for a North Atlantic launch - - - Northeastern stocks down 500k ahead of heavy Russian refinery turnaround schedule.



US crude imports by origin in kbpd
Canada +274 to 3679
Mexico +262 to 699
Saudi Arabia +105 to 567
Colombia +5 to 300
Iraq -132 to 100
Ecuador -229 to 99
Nigeria +76 to 220
Brazil -177 to 68
Libya +90 to 90 EIA

US implied oil demand (product supplied) fell by 1.226mbpd w/w to 20.203mbpd last week w/w changes in kbpd
gasoline +253
jet fuel -189
distillate +164
residual fuel oil +137
propane/propylene +350
other oils -1941 EIA


Crude -6.307MM, Exp. -2.0MM
Gasoline -2.666MM
Distillates +679K
Cushing -1.750MM
Production 12.8mmbd unch
SPR +798K

The story this autumn may be the mismatch of too much light tight oil and not enough distillate-rich crude. US refiners ran almost 700k/day more crude & feedstock last week, yet they made 14,000 b/d less diesel than last year. This will be a problem into the winter.



EIA data, week ending 9/1 Crude oil: -6.3M Domestic prod: 12.8MMbpd SPR: +0.8M Cushing: -1.8M Gasoline: -2.7M Impld mogas demand: 9.32Mbpd Distillates: +0.7M Refiner utilz: 93.1% Total exports: 11.43MMbpd

US commercial petroleum inventories rose 0.4 MMbbl last week, though that headline gain was driven by "other liquids" & obscures sizable draws across crude (-6.2 MMbbl) and gasoline (-2.7 MMbbl). Commercial US crude stocks now down **40 million barrels** over the past six weeks.

[pooltec]

Curious to see what happens to that 3679 number from Canada when the pipeline opens?

[newtonboy]

It is of my opinion that this pipeline will not be operational while the present minority federal government remains coalitioned with its "partners in crime". Blackface and Gildo teamed up with Junkmeat, will delay the open of this eventual and much needed Canadian ATM machine as long as we let them do so.  Each day of delay costs millions in extra costs and lost revenue. Truly

[mrbb]

the whole point of the liberal gov't buying TMX is the control the optic, the timeline and oilsand development pace.  They didn't buy it to expedite the TMX start date.