Suncor Energy Inc T.SU

Oil was priced Friday without a war premium, what now?

[MigraineCall]

With all the recent progress in the ME towards peace and improving relations, oil's war premium had totally vanished from the price.

Just days ago, we were just at $95, then had a technical pullback to the low 80's, which was even a bit overdone. 
 
But just like that, new fighting breaking out in Israel and Gaza will put all the latest efforts to decrease ME tensions on hold, if not stopped altogether. 

With such significant Israeli casualties, there will bound to be an Israeli retaliatory response several multiples higher, which will galvanize the Arab world even more, causing much higher threat levels. 

High rise buildings in Gaza are being reduced to rubble already as a start. What will be next?

Remember, Saudi and OPEC+ production cutbacks of a mere 1-2 mm bpd help raise oil prices up to $95. 

Just what would the price be with the loss of a significant portion of the 21 million bpd of crude that passes through the straight of Hormuz?

Got oil?

[Experienced]

Obviously we will need to see how this plays out. Saudi Arabia under MBS are moving towards a normalization of relations between them and Israel.  In an interview with Brett Baier MBS made it clear that he wants an agreement.  It is also well known that many members of MBS' inner circle of advisor have little patience for Hamas and some are openly hostile towards the group. Right

[ztransforms173]

- 4 Israeli MECHANIZED DIVISIONS (40,000 to 50,000 troops with tanks and armored personnel carriers) are going to INVADE Gaza - 5000 Israeli reservists are flying back to Israel from GREECE (I gather that they were on VACATION !) - HORRIBLE DEATH and DESTRUCTION - OPERATION will LAST MANY WEEKS - this MOVE could ESCALATE CONFLICT by bring MILITARY-STRONGER Hezbollah (based in Lebanon) into WAR

[ztransforms173]

- I should POINT OUT that this is the  LIKELY COURSE OF ACTION {Gaza INVASION} and NOT 100% CERTAIN z173

[ztransforms173]

- there are RUMOURS that Hamas has an Israeli military GENERAL and 50+ Israeli SOLDIERS as HOSTAGE besides the PICTURES of WOMEN and GRANDMOTHERS posted on the internet - the Israelis have also CUT OFF ELECTRIC POWER to Gaza z173

[ztransforms173]

- BIGGEST Israeli INTELLIGENCE FAILURE since the 1973 YOM KIPPUR WAR (50 years + one day) - UNPRECEDENTED 1000+ Hamas FIGHTERS INFILTRATION into Israel from Gaza using EXPLOSIVES, CONSTRUCTION BULLDOZERS, wirecutters, motorcycles, pick-up trucks and MOTORIZED PARAGLIDERS * NOT to mention many POWERFUL SPEEDBOATS carrying Hamas COMMANDOS that were DESTROYED by the Israeli Navy * in addition

[mrbb]

just my tin foil hat churning, i have no evidence. JMO it is surprising to see how swift and precise this hamas attack was on israel. Could some entity supplied them with intel? the current ukraine-russia war ain't going as plan for either side. Putin ain't giving up. Admitting defeat or settle on negotiated halt is not an opton. Sanction against russia will be in place regardless

[pooltec]

u forgot woke and anti woke

[mrbb]

wokeness is a generalized term, so i listed a few specific examples without choosing side. 

[Experienced]

It was a lot more than intel. Hamas doesn't have the capacity and expertise or money to manufacture 5000 rockets.  There is only one country in the world that has the technology and an interest in providing such weapons to Hamas. Hint.....notice how quickly Iran called for an oil embargo after Israel retaliated. in terms of intel, the attack by $Hamas shows a complete breakdown of the

[RJboxer]

Israel is surely looking at a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. 

[ztransforms173]

- there is INCREASING SPECULATION that the Israeli EXPANSIVE Gaza  BORDER PERIMETER SENSOR NETWORK was RENDERED INOPERATIVE by an Iranian (?) CYBER ATTACK  - however, this does NOT explain why the HUMAN BORDER GUARDS manning the FENCE WATCH TOWERS were NOT ABLE TO DETECT construction BULLDOZERS and FRONT-END LOADERS SHATTERING the SECURITY FENCING * did they TAKE COVER when the

[autofocus111]

Maybe Russia can offer Iran some short-range nuclear missles to use as a deterrent against any attack by Israel.

[mrbb]

oil will be interesting next week. Renewable energies are so boring.  Israel Declares War For First Time Since 1973 As Death Toll Exceeds 700; Americans Among Gaza Hostages | ZeroHedge US Sends Warships, Aircraft Carrier To Israel For Potential 'Support' Operations | ZeroHedge      

[Experienced]

If you normalize for population and compare this attack to 9/11..... the death toll would be equivalent to about 25,000 people dying in 9/11

[mrbb]

only if you believe the arabs planned and funded the attack on 9/11

[bttmfischer]

I may be off here, but knowing the former KGB' s clever ways, as the Russinans stalled war effort in Ukraine is embarassing to theirimage of itheir invincibiity, this could be a classic diversional tactic, cooked up by the  Iranian Puh-bah, while visting Putin a short while ago.

[mrbb]

this might explain the intelligence failure, overreliance on AI. I guess chatgpt isn't ready for prime time yet COMMENT: Israel’s overreliance on AI was a major cause of its Hamas attack intelligence failure (msn.com) the question now is, how would the non-tech savy hamas know about this and exploit its loopholes? Who has the tech savy to know this and pass it onto to the hamas?

[Experienced]

Interesting perspective on the use of AI.. Begs the question whether Hamas with help from the Iranians have their own AI systems which are deceiving the Israeli AI systems....machine vs machine so to speak.  If so, this is a scary thought for our future world.

[pooltec]

I was wondering why the price of oil dropped so much last week.   Thinking someone new a dust up in Israel was in the works and they loaded up with oil big time on Friday.  And Israel fella on CNN said they were caught by surprise.  Someone bought really low and will get to sell high again......

[pooltec]

Sorry should say Israeli fella

[Kman86]

Lack of discovery/production investment Production cuts Major worldwide wars Increasing demand The list goes on......Canadian producers are going to be raking in billions of dollars in the short/mid term. Anyone thinking otherwise is totally ignorant and/or naiave. I'll preface this by stating that this is just my opinion and things can always change but for the time being, pick your

[Kman86]

Oil currently up over 4%