Suncor Energy Inc T.SU

EIA Crude +10, Gasoline -1.3 Dist -1.8m

[MigraineCall]

Large crude build.
US Crude exports plummet 1.9mm bpd.
Implied oil demand up.
Gasoline demand up.
Crude production inflated by rebalancing.

Neutral report.






WTI just under $85, up $1.40+ just prior to release. Oil UP 10.2 mm barrels (vs -0.2 exp and echoing API) – SPR – unchanged – Throughput – down 0.4 mm bopd week to week – Imports – up 0.1 mm bopd w-t-w – Exports – down 1.9 mm bopd w-t-w

US implied oil demand (product supplied) rose by 509kbpd w/w to 19.666mbpd last week w/w changes in kbpd gasoline +567 jet fuel -216 distillate -145 residual fuel oil -102 propane/propylene -127 other oils +542

EIA data, week ending 10/6 -

@GasBuddyGuy

@EIAgov

Crude oil: +10.2M Domestic prod: 13.2MMbpd SPR: NC Cushing: -0.3M Gasoline: -1.3M Impld mogas demand: 8.58Mbpd Distillates: -1.8M Refiner utilz: 85.7% Total exports: 10.1MMbpd

EIA reporting a 10m bbl #crudeoil build driven by a 2mbd decline in exports to 3mbd. Production up 0.3mbd to a record 13.2mbd. Implied #gasoline demand (4wk avg) showed a small recovery but remains very weak on a seasonal basis. Refinery utilization slumped to a January low at 85.7%



US crude imports by origin incl w/w changes in kbpd Canada +353 to 3544 Mexico +132 to 656 Saudi Arabia -224 to 67 Colombia +146 to 289 Iraq -59 to 247 Ecuador -125 to 0 Nigeria +46 to 46 Brazil +153 to 362 Libya -1 to 88

Implied gasoline demand right at (my own) expectation-8.6mbpd- a modest recovery shows that stations are ramping up purchasing, but still holding back a bit. Once there's a clear bottom to RBOB, I'd expect it to show a bit stronger.

Crude +10.176MM, Exp. -1.4MM Gasoline -1.313MM Distillates -1.837MM Cushing -319K Production 13.2MMb/d, +300kbpd


"This week’s domestic crude oil production estimate incorporates a re-benchmarking that increased estimated volumes by 370,000 barrels per day, which is about 2.8% of this week’s estimated production total." EIA drilling on paper. Reported US Crude Production vs Rig counts:

[autofocus111]

Thanks for the info. RE: crude production this 're-benchmarking' shows in the chart as a big spike in production to now surpass the previous 2020 high, but is this really the case?  What would this chart look like if the re-benchmark was applied retroactively? EIA has the raw data so presumably they could do that. 

[MigraineCall]

The EIA rebenchmarking added 370k bpd to the normal production figures on this report.

[autofocus111]

Can you please clarify? I'm referring specifically to the last chart in your post that shows historical production and rig count. Has all the production data in that chart been retroactively adjusted using the new benchmark methodology, or only the data after the re-benchmark method was implemented a few weeks ago (that resulted in a step shift up)? Thanks.

[MigraineCall]

Yes, since they started the new rebenchmarking calculation and reporting methods this summer, production numbers reported have increased instantaneously like magic. Not apples to apples. Here's today's release: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/pdf/wpsrall.pdf Here is their warning disclaimer notice from that report. You have to go back to prior reports to find the fudge factor

[MigraineCall]

I don't think I answered your question exactly as you have asked Autofocus. I do not believe the old reported numbers for production have changed, only the numbers since they started fudging. Clearly one can see the difference and sudden spike in the chart. When you overlay the rig counts, clearly the production reported does not make sense.  Data quality with crude and products is

[MigraineCall]

Further to all this magic crude appearing on the market, this is the hidden secret to the US Crude production trick. The main reason US crude production figures have increased so much lately is that they changed their methodology, and now consider condensate blended with crude to be classified as 100% crude, and therefore included in their US production figures. When you water down your Rye and

[Experienced]

This adjustment has been going since at least last March. @Why are we talking about this now as if it is something new? That said, the Government doing something like this is not new and is clearly politically driven in much the same way that the Government changed the way inflation was calculated in the early 1980s. The goal back then was to manipulate the data to under report the inflation