As I have said in many previous posts, the key thing regarding politics is to understand what is going on, what is important, and deciding on whether any of that suggests a change in your portfolio allocations.
Sooooo..let's take a look at this
The talking heads on CNN and Fox and the other networks are going to throw a lot trivia and opinions at you in order to fill their broadcast schedule. Most of that talk is essentially meaningless.
In the US it really doesn't matter whether Kamala or somebody else is at the top of the democratic ticket.
Why?
Because essentially most of the voters in the US have already made up their minds and as one woman said in an interview a couple of weeks ago - "I would vote for Biden even if he was in a coffin"
So then - what is really important?
Essentially the whole thing will depend on what happens in about 5 of the 50 states (the so-called "swing states") and out of the whole electorate only about 4% are truly undecided and will have a big impact on the results. The other key determinant is the level of turnout that each party will get and this depends on voter "enthusiasm". No polling is going to capture these two factors and so relying on the polls to make your investment decisions could lead to big mistakes. Looking for ways to get answers to these two questions is what I am focussing on and discarding the rest of the blather.
Sooooo...does it make a difference which party becomes President?
Well a lot depends on what happens in the Senate and the House as to whether the new president will be able to affect any changes. That said, let's look at whether there are any real differences between the parties or not.
Budgetary Deficits and the National Debt - both Parties have spending plans and neither IMO is serious about reducing the debt so as investors that is a big overhang which come to roost at some point in the future and it when it does it will not be pretty.
Oil Industry and EVs - from what we have seen so far, a Democrat as predicent will likely continue to try and make things difficult for the US oil industry and try to accelerate the conversion to EVs through regulations. IMO, the impact is likely to be a failure on the EV side and marginally successful in terms of the oil industry. If this happens then we could see a narrowing of the differential between WTI and Brent and greater reliance on Canadian oil which is a good thing for investments in companiers like SU. Conversely, a Republican victory will likely have the opposite effect.
There are others but since this is an oil Board, inwill leave it at that.