Suncor Energy Inc T.SU

US Election - Investor Implications

[Experienced]

Over the years/decades my overall conclusion has been that election results don't really matter that much in terms of investment decisions.  As I have posted here, and elesewhere, it is my belief that this time around in the US it will matter who wins as this is a battle between Marxism (and surprisingly a bit of fascism - not Trump but actually Harris {if you don't believe me read and understand what Fascism is and then look at what the Dems are doing}) and Capitalism.  The difference between the two in terms of the overall economy over the longer run IMO is significant in terms of where to invest and expected future returns from the stock market.

So lets first look at the election in the US.

The polls basically say it is a tossup and most people then conclude that the electoral results will be close.  That may well be the case but my spidey sense says the opposite.  The close margins in the so-called battleground states could go one way or the other and we then have an overwelming electoral college vote one way or the other.  (if you are interested in this Google "270towin" and do your own result simulations to see what I am talking about).  The other consideration of course is what happens in the downballot voting - which party will win the Senate and the House.  If either is the opposite of the party that winds up in the White House then there will limits on what the President can do.  For the long run IMO, the Senate is more important because the Dems want to change the voting rules from 66% to a simple majority and the Senate controls which Supreme Court replacements get into SCOTUS along with lower court judges.  This also has a big impact on investors which many people don't realize.

So what are the investment implications IMO?

Harris...

More regulation...higher corporate taxes...greater Government control over the economy and more National Debt.  Not good for the stock market.  For energy...greater limits on energy production which will over time actually be good for those invested in oil but not for anything else.  Continued controls on LNG exports will not be good for those invested in NG production companies.

Trump....

Less regulation...lower corporate taxes...less Government control over the economy which are good things for the economy and investors.  Under Trump the national debt will also increase which is not a good thing over time.  For energy...more energy production and likely lower energy prices which is not necessarily a good thing for energy investors.  This could be somewhat offset by a reduction in the EV mandates at the national level but this can offset somewhat by DEM controlled states.

So what should investors be doing?

For my part, I am looking at different scenarios regarding asset allocation depending who wins so I am prepared.  Over the years, this advanced planning has paid off in many ways.

[Experienced]

As a postscript to my earlier post... The last decade, particularly, and perhaps the last couple has seen an increase in the polarization of US politics which is not good for the US, and, by extension, investors. I recall many years ago, I travelled to the US many times for investor conferences and meetings with US investors.  Some of these trips involved going to Washington where I was in