Post by
Experienced on Nov 07, 2024 10:44am
Some Trump Scenarios - Implications For Oil
More things I am looking at....what about the current wars - Ukraine and Middle East?
Here's what I see/thinking about...
Ukraine...
Trump negotiates a deal with Russia and Ukraine where Russia gets the Eastern 20% (they are Russians anyway) that Russia now controls and in return Trump agrees to push a fast track entry of Ukraine into NATO. War ends along with all the killing. The hammers? - Trump says to Ukraine take it or we don't help you anymore. To Russia - take it or we arm Ukraine to the teeth.
Middle East...
Multi faceted approach -
1...starve Iran as before..they won't be able to continue to fund Hezbollah and Hamas so they will negotiate a cease fire. As part of the deal Trump agrees to provide money for reconstruction of the damage in Gaza and southern Lebanon. This way he wins with both Palestinians and Jews in the US.
2...talk to MBS (he doesn't like the Palestinians anyway) and get the next step in the Abraham Accords restarted following a cease fire in Gaza and Lebanon.
Implcations for oil....no war premium and back to basic supply and demand forces.
The kicker?
We have to wait a couple of monthds before he can start all this and Iran might try to take premptive action starting a more serious conflict. So we may well see continued volatility for the next few months
Comment by
meritmat on Nov 07, 2024 4:32pm
Enforce the sanctions on Iran, close to 1m barrels. SA can make up the diff Sanction Venezuela. More oil off the market and more for SA to add