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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Suncor Energy Inc T.SU

Alternate Symbol(s):  SU

Suncor Energy Inc. is a Canada-based integrated energy company. The Company's segments include Oil Sands, Exploration and Production (E&P), and Refining and Marketing. Its operations include oil sands development, production and upgrading; offshore oil production; petroleum refining in Canada and the United States; and the Company’s Petro-Canada retail and wholesale distribution networks... see more

TSX:SU - Post Discussion

Suncor Energy Inc > Undeniable math
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Post by Obscure1 on Dec 09, 2024 3:37pm

Undeniable math

When Tesla first offered its Model S in 2010, the price of batteries was $1,200 per kWh.

It took until October 2023 to get that number below $100 per kWh

Today, just one year later, the price per kWh is now at $53

What does that mean to EV vs ICE manufacturers?

* the breakeven point where it is cheaper to produce an EV for less than it costs to produce an ICE vehicle is $60/kWh

* the latest estimates within the industry expect the cost will drop to as low as $10/kWh by 2030 with a $30 target now seen as being possible in 2026 or 2027 due to the supply of batteries growing at an extraordinary rate in the USA and China which is expected to far outpace demand for at least the next 4 years

What's happening in the auto industry today?

* for the past decade, Toyota and VW have vied back and forth for the title of producing the most cars in the world at about 10 million per year

* VW:  is now in crisis as their Chinese sales (where auto companies have historically derived 50% or more of their profits) have fallen off a cliff - is now faced with closing 3 plants in Germany where capacity utilization has dropped to under 60% which is unsustainable for survival - has told their German workers that they need to take a 10% pay cut for the company to survive in Germany which has resulted in 100,000 workers going on strike which is not going to end well for VW - has US$195 billion in debt which will never get paid >>>> VW is racing towards bankruptcy

* Toyota: only dropped 5.1% in the first half of the year but their never ending business strategy changes are not fooling anyone - with it's $362 billion in debt, Toyota has waited too long to adapt - company survival wthout government intervention is very much in doubt

* The news for Nissan and Mazda is even worse

* The American Big 3 have all taken a step back in reacting to the future EV direction of the industry.  Are they going to be too late to the game with their ever increasing prices?  I dunno.  

Will Trump follow through with a 100% tarrif on Chinese vehicles or ban their importation altogether?  Maybe Trump will allow the Big 3 to partner with Chinese EV companies who will produce in the USA.  Without protection or partnerships, the Big 3 are done.  The fact is no longer open to debate but nobody will talk about it. 

Check out the BYD Dolphin hatchback.  It is a very well made care that is selling for US$14,000.  There is no logical arguement that supports buying anything else in the category. 

Tesla is expected to introduce a competitive hatchack to the Dolphin for $25,000 to $30,000 in the first half of 2025.  It won't be long until Tesla introduces its Cybercab which the company says will be made with approximately 1/2 of the parts it uses in its Model 3 cars.  What will the Cybercab be priced at?  

The Trump administation and hopefully the new Poilievre government will likely provide Suncor with the support it needs to flourish as a tar sands producer of oil for the next 4 years.  I hope Suncor uses the opportunity wisely to figure out how to dump or repurpose its 4 refineries before it is too late.  At the very least, SU will need to reallign the production capabilities of its refineries to match the inevitable change in demand for gasoline.

Comment by mrbb on Dec 10, 2024 12:52am
If you fall down and you're fat and heavy, you can't get up (1) Facebook
Comment by pooltec on Dec 10, 2024 1:39pm
"When you(fat) fall, down you make a loud sound " Tuco, The God The Bad and The Ugly
Comment by GingerEnergy111 on Dec 11, 2024 6:45am
The BYD Dolphin looks pretty good in the promo pics - I just bought a RAV4 this year (used but only 10,000 km) non hybrid.  I still own my 2008 Yaris which I can hardly part with it is such a little workhorse and still going strong at over 260,000 km with transmission and cooling system maintenance.  Both are super cheap to drive, very economical gas mileage. I cringe at having to own ...more  
Comment by Marty47 on Dec 11, 2024 9:46am
I said that before I would buy an ev when it's less than 20k , I'm like you I had a Toyota hybrid put 320k on it and never repair it beside brake bought back then 23k sold 8900$ at 310k , today an electric car is getting married to a dealership , once you have one you spend time fix the bugs , mechanics knows nothing on , they depreciate 50% after 2 years it's good if you do low ...more  
Comment by mrbb on Dec 11, 2024 7:43pm
EV definitely has its niche applicaton. To blankly say EV is cheaper and better than ICE is false. By extending the life of an old ICE vehicle through sould maintenance is far cheaper and more green than buying a new EV. As EV gets cheaper with time, they'll become a disposable item due to cheap initial cost put into building a chea EV and behavioral change of replacing it with new instead of ...more  
Comment by Marty47 on Dec 12, 2024 8:59am
The problem with ev is simple .... no peace of mind , as they constantly change mechanics can't adapt fast enough , once out of warranty you may not have parts or long delay du to no mechanics available and non stop problem , we have ice maker now that still make crappy gas power car with transmission issues  engine issues so I think electric reliability is still 10 years behind , if ...more  
Comment by mrbb on Dec 12, 2024 10:18pm
it's a myth concocted by EV manufacturers that EV has less parts and hence more reliable than ICE Consumer Reports Most Reliable Cars for 2024: Subaru 2. Lexus 3. Toyota 4. Honda 5. Acura 6. Mazda 7. Audi 8. BMW 9. Kia 10. Hyundai 11. Buick 12. Nissan 13. Ford 14. Genesis 15. Volvo 16. Chevrolet 17. Tesla 18. Volkswagen 19. Jeep 20. GMC 21 ...more  
Comment by Marty47 on Dec 13, 2024 9:02am
Anything that's pump by government like ev .... it smell fishy , when anyone pump too much of something .... there is reasons to do so , you have to be cautious in life , ev for me is like when I was you and my mother told " don't take candy from strangers  or don't go see their puppies dog if they invite you "lol today ev maker are doing the same .... first it's way ...more  
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