The Company increased its 2023 outlook for adjusted EBITDA to between $1.7 billion and $1.8 billion. The midpoint of the range represents a 17 per cent increase over the Company's previous revised 2023 outlook as at the first quarter of 2023 of $1.45 billion and $1.55 billion.
FCF outlook has also been increased and is now expected to be between $850 million and $950 million. The midpoint of the range represents a 29 per cent increase over the Company's previous 2023 revised outlook of $650 to $750 million.
The following table provides additional details pertaining to the 2023 outlook:
| Measure | Updated Target 2023 | Original Target 2023 | 2022 Actuals |
| Adjusted EBITDA(1) | $1,700 million - $1,800 million | $1,200 million -$1,320 million | $1,634 million |
| FCF(1) | $850 million - $950 million | $560 million - $660 million | $961 million |
Range of key 2023 power and gas price assumptions:
| Market | Updated 2023 Assumptions | 2023 Original Assumptions |
| Alberta Spot ($/MWh) | $150 to $170 | $105 to $135 |
| Mid-C Spot (US$/MWh) | US$90 to US$100 | US$75 to US$85 |
| AECO Gas Price ($/GJ) | $2.50 | $4.60 |
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| Alberta spot price sensitivity: a +/- $1 per MWh change in spot price is expected to have a +/- $4 million impact on adjusted EBITDA for 2023. |
Range of Alberta hedging assumptions:
| Range of hedging assumptions | Q3 2023 | Q4 2023 | Full year 2024 | Full year 2025 |
| Hedged production (GWh) | 2,012 | 1,558 | 4,506 | 2,423 |
| Hedge price ($/MWh) | $116 | $84 | $82 | $83 |
| Hedged gas volumes (GJ) | 18 million | 15 million | 44 million | 22 million |
| Hedge gas prices ($/GJ) | $2.27 | $2.26 | $2.64 | $3.62 |