Post by
drunk@noon on Mar 19, 2024 4:19pm
Their buyback is a waste of money as it's piddly. HME is
serious about their buy back. Also take into account that their dividend will be higher than base quarterly. See last year. Also take a look at the hudge discount they treade to NAV. And the risk is night and day.
Also, if you notice petrotals presentation is a bait and switch game. In the chart showing future production they always have the next year jumpoing up 4-5000 bopd. Last year they had them at well over 20,000 for this year. Then they changes the figure. And now they have next year's production jumping to 23,000 bopd. Since they can't even produce an avg of 17,000 with no contraints, what are they going to do this year. 15,000 bodp. I mean, they just finished doing a week where they had 4-5 0 prodcution days, with mid teen production when they did produce. What's going on their. It's always something. I always thought if they could ever get over Perez shutting down operations every few months this thing would be a steal of a value. I have held this for years starting in the mid twenty cent level and have done very well.
Manola is a good oil man, but things aren't really adding up given they talk about being able to produce 22-23,000 barrels a day without being constrained by outside factors, yet they are lucky to avg 17000 bopd. And now, don''t forget, they have to pay 33% in taxes in addition to social fund and royalites. So it isn't the cash cost it was before. Don't get me wrong, at 85 dollar brent, and if they can ever start pumpoinog out 20,000 bopd this is a good value- but the now their is politiccal risk, transportation risk, and execution risk as production isn't coming through as promised. Unfortunately my hodlings in Tal still dwarf what I have in HME, and HME is up another 5 cents today.