Trican Well Service Ltd T.TCW

Does this make sense? 24 month high

[marcrobert]

unless there's a takeover coming, what's the deal. analyst targets were just increased last month to 1.50 12 month range. we're already there. sell into strength and take a loss or wait? why wait?

[itsalie]

put in a stop loss around 1.40 and let it ride.. if you get stopped out sobeit if it keeps going up, which I think it will, you're good.. 

[marcrobert]

thanks, not looking for a trade setup lesson, but for fundamentals about why hold after 200% increase off the bottom, 20% off february levels. my gut tells me this across the board energy euphoria is temporary and not fundamental as hedge funds and others retotgrabbing any beaten down sector in the recovery trade that hasn't really moved .

[5to10hold]

My 2 cents (and personal investment thesis):  - TCW is unlevered so relative to all other competitors, in this environment, it is by far the most attractive from a downside perspective  - The story for Canada for the next 5 years is the Montney - this liquid rich region (specifically condensate) makes the Montney a cost competitive resource not only in NA but globally. Proof of this is

[EstevanOutsider]

Great post 5to10hold but I just want to add, I think we could see a strong pull on liquids activity later into 2021, Q3 and Q4 could easily outperform at the status quo which will put a huge pull on Trican's service lines which are equipped to deal with the Montney especially. I don't think it's far fetched to say we could see $5 late in 2021.   Of course, everything depends

[itsalie]

There is also the question of who will be left standing when the downturn is over, some suggest trican will be one of the only ones.. less cometition won't hurt pricing . 

[Mtklip]

I think the move is because of: 1. Sector rotation/seasonal Santa rally 2. Recent board appointment 3. Vaccine news. I expect there will be a seasonal pullback in the stock starting in early spring. The business is still going to be mediocre in 2021, I think oil companies are a better bet as they were really annihilated because of covid.

[Nayboring]

I don't think they would be going to the effort of selecting new board members if there was a takeover in the works - unless they were acquiring someone else...

[Stonksonlyup90]

They are definitely in the position of being the acquirer, not the acquired. Recent board addition was ex-ceo from $HWO High Arctic - could be something in the works.